Nikulina, Natalya Leonidovna
Academic degree: Ph.D. in Economics
Academic rank:
Country: Russia
City: Yekaterinburg
Workplace: Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences
Position: Head of Department

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Problems of Increasing the Regional Development Innovative Sustainability
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The article gives a comparative analysis of the innovation and technological development in Russia and foreign countries. The paper shows that in the innovation sector, Russia lags behind most of the developed and developing countries: Russia has almost left the market of high technologies; main costs for innovations are implemented in the sectors of low and medium technology industries. Self-sufficiency of Russian economy for a number of the major types of production equipment is significantly below than the threshold marks determined by the requirements of national security. The article demonstrated the differentiation in the innovative development of the Russian regions. The study of the Russian innovation space has shown that in the periphery, there are sufficiently intense processes of the attenuation of science, which creates serious problems for the growth of innovative impulses across the country. The authors present the methodology for integrated assessment of regional innovative security. The appropriate calculations for regions of the Ural Federal District are performed. The article identifies the most critical factors for innovative sustainability of these regions. The authors have made a forecast as well as built the projected trajectories of the innovative security level of the Ural Federal District using the modernized method of Hurst. We have formulated the main barriers to the innovative development of the Russian regions. The article presents the methodological approaches to the substantiation of the priorities for the formation of the innovative system of regions including the specific features of their science and industry. The authors propose the methodology for the formal evaluation of the creation of a regional innovation activity centers aimed at supporting the competitiveness of the enterprises of different technological level. The paper presents calculation results for the priority of the formation of the centers of innovation activity aimed at supporting the development of industries of different technological level on the example of the regions of the Ural Federal District which is one of the leading Russian regions in the innovative and productive potentials.

Transformation of theoretical-methodological approaches and methodical tools of the individual and territory welfare diagnostics. Part 1. From spreading to the alternative diagnostics approaches (background)
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This article presents an evolution of theoretical and methodological approaches to the welfare study. Existing theories of wellbeing are grouped according to accounted method of goods and resources distribution among society members. As a welfare future as a category we highlight objective (measured) and subjective (estimated) components. Based on the analysis of scientific literature we determine the ratio of individual and social welfare. The main differences between the categories of “ welfare” and “wealth” are given. The main difference consists in multidirectional changes of welfare and wealth for an increase (decrease) in income of the individual (country). In this article we present an analysis of modern approaches to the definition of welfare: state, institutional and expendable approach. The welfare level estimation is complicated due to the need to consider the subjective component. The article provides an analysis of existing approaches to quantitative welfare evaluation ranging from the most common techniques (HDI, GDP) to alternative techniques (Happy Planet Index).Methodological devices are structured by levels of welfare assessment objects (world, country, region, people). Based on the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of methods we can conclude that the most reliable method is a comprehensive approach, which includes economic, environmental, social, vital and infrastructure indicators. The author’s approach to the formation of a complex methodological tool for individual and territory welfare estimation is presented in this article.

Synergetic method of a quantitative forecasting of economic times series
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In the article, a synergetic method of the economic time series forecasting on the basis of the modified method of Hurst is discussed. It is a new nonlinear method of predicting the development of economic systems according to time series on macro- and mesolevels. The main theorem underlying the forecasting method is formulated and strictly proved: for a chaotic series of a particular length it is possible to specify a time interval where the series is reliably predicted with the Hurst exponent more than 0.5. The examples of the fractal characteristics’ calculation and the forecasting taking into account time of reliable forecast of the socioeconomic indexes’ behavior — oil prices, natural gas prices, the Dow Jones index, the «euro-dollar» prices, the Gross Domestic Product, and some other indicators at the regional level are given. All calculations are carried out by means of the specialized software product upgraded for the task solution set in this article.

Assessment of damage from reduction of expected lifespan due to cancer
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This paper presents the theoretical and methodological approaches to the assessment of damage from premature mortality and reduction of life expectancy due to various reasons. The concepts measuring the price of a human life are analyzed: the evaluation from the standpoint of the theory of human capital; indirect estimation taking into account non-monetary social costs; evaluation of individuals’ willingness to pay for the elimination of the risk of death; estimation based on the determination of insurance premiums and compensations under court decision; evaluation of the social investments, aimed to reduce the risk of premature mortality of the individual. The following indexes were calculated for all subordinate entities of the Russian Federation: reduction of life expectancy, lost years of potential life in the working age, and gross regional product lost due to the reduction of years of potential life in the working-age population as a result of cancer.

Assessment of damage from reduction of expected lifespan due to cancer
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This paper presents the theoretical and methodological approaches to the assessment of damage from premature mortality and reduction of life expectancy due to various reasons. The concepts measuring the price of a human life are analyzed: the evaluation from the standpoint of the theory of human capital; indirect estimation taking into account non-monetary social costs; evaluation of individuals’ willingness to pay for the elimination of the risk of death; estimation based on the determination of insurance premiums and compensations under court decision; evaluation of the social investments, aimed to reduce the risk of premature mortality of the individual. The following indexes were calculated for all subordinate entities of the Russian Federation: reduction of life expectancy, lost years of potential life in the working age, and gross regional product lost due to the reduction of years of potential life in the working-age population as a result of cancer.

Investigation of economic security in terms of relations “innovation security — innovation culture”
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The paper considers the issues of region’s economic security. Threat characterization of economic security and their influence in terms of 13 life domains is presented. Innovation factor and its contribution into modern economic growth is given. The author defines “innovation security of territorial subdivision” placing emphasis on the innovation society emergency with multi-vector socially oriented economy. It provides world’s standards of life quality and life environment, development of innovation effective economy, with science and engineering progress to result from a certain level of innovation culture providing economic security. The relations of innovation security and innovation culture are considered as one of many life domains of region’s security.

Risks assessment and forecasting long time rows of economic indicators
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This paper reviews main approaches to risk assessment. The authors accented attention on the nonlinear approach to the theory of risks. It is proposed to define economic risk as the probability of threats that could have material adverse effect on the economic system under study and to change its current state. The method and the program product designed by the authors integrate a wide range of indicators of economic and financial activities at the regional level in the program-technical complex. This paper describes a new method for assessing synergistic and prediction of risk over long time rows of economic indicators at the regional level, including methods of nonlinear and chaotic dynamics, enabling a pseudo-phase and phase portraits, to determine the volatility, to calculate fractal characteristics and predict the behavior of socio-economic indicators with modernized method of Hurst, to model based on recovery probability distribution function of nonequilibrium potential function, to determine the local and global stability of the regional economy and to identify risks as the probability of the threats of an economic nature.

Theoretical and methodological approaches to the diagnosis of the region's state material reservation system status
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This paper deals with the structural components of the state reservation theory with the elements of decomposition and tools of studies performed on private lines. A method for diagnosing the state material reservation system (SMRS) as part of economic security in the region is presented. Extensive tests of the methodological apparatus of SMRS assessment on the example of the Ural Federal District have been made.

The management of the state reserving system in the aspect of the regional economic security supporting
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The role of the state material reserving system in the regional economic security supporting is considered in the article. The scheme of the systemic and structural presentation of the state material reserve for purposes of the regional economic security increasing. The static economic and mathematical model is worked out for the meeting the challenge of the optimization of the technological processes of the production acquisition and the storing on the complexes and critical storing offices.

Problems of the estimation of ecological safety of region
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In article questions of an estimation of level of exhaustion of ecological capacity of territory as criterion of ecological safety of region are considered. Calculations of degree of ecological safety of Sverdlovsk area by different techniques are presented.

Ecological safety of region (socially-ecology-economic aspect)
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The article is devoted to the problems of an estimation of ecological safety at a regional level. Authors systematized criteria and considered the algorithm of an estimation of ecological safety of the region. The methodical device of an estimation of ecological safety of the region on factor of an exhaustion ecological technical capacity of territory was offered.

Ecological aspects of economic safety of region
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In article aspects of interference of ecological and economic safety are considered. The methodical approach to an estimation of ecological safety as major condition of maintenance of economic safety of region reveals.
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