Kuklin, Aleksandr Anatolyevich
Academic degree: The Doctor of Economics
Academic rank: The professor
Country: Russia
City: Ekaterinburg
Workplace: Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Position: Head of the Centre

Keywords

Achievements

Projects


Actuarial Evaluation of Pension Risks of Russia: from Theory to Practice
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The article discusses the origins of the development of pension systems in the world, shows the causes of the emergence of various models of public pension provision. We pay a particular attention to the history of the formation of the Russian pension system, and analyse the stages and causes of modern reform. From the position of modern legislation, we systemise the forms, types of pension provision and pension insurance in the Russian Federation from the point of view of the sources of financing and subjects of pension relations. The authors have defined the concept of “actuarial evaluation” from the point of view of the process and system approach. We have revealed the content of the pension risk category, as well as classified the pension risks by the spheres of origin. The authors have developed the methodology of actuarial estimation of the risks of the pension system classified by different criteria: demographic, economic, financial, labor risks. The proposed methodological approach to the evaluation of pension risks is based on the comprehensive assessment of socio-economic indicators and the identification of dependencies between socio-demographic and economic processes in the pension system and economy of the country. The authors have tested the developed tools on the actuarial estimation of the pension risks of the Russian Federation. The article presents the results of calculations and identifies critical risks for the Russian pension system. We have proved that stagnation processes in the economy and a high share of the shadow economy represent the greatest threat to the Russian pension system in the short term, whereas, the aging of the population and the increase in life expectancy — in the long term.

Comparison of the Efficiency of Budget Financing and the Social Security of a Region
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In the article, the theoretical and economic aspects of the category “security” are considered; the distinction between philosophical and socio-economic approaches to the understanding of social security is drawn. From the point of view of the system approach, the place of social security for national security protection is determined. The theoretical content of the category “social security” is shown; in the authors’ treatment, the specifying concepts such as “social risks”, “danger”, “threat” are given. For the purpose of risks identification (deviations) and the revealing of the factors of inefficient financing, the methodological tools for the assessment of the social security of a region are proposed. These tools are based on the integrated assessment of the regional socio-economic indexes and the indexes assessing the budgetary financing of the territory. The methodical approach offered by the authors is based on the detection of dependencies between the social and financial security of a region. As estimates, the indicators reflecting the level of social security in the territory of residence are chosen: income, expenses of the consolidated budget of a region, growth rate of gross regional product, rate of natural population growth, level of unemployment, population share with the income below living level. This approach is approved on the example of Perm Krai and Sverdlovsk region; the regularities, the favourable and adverse periods for social security of the region are revealed. The received estimates are ranged depending on a temporary log of growth (fall), elasticity and sensitivity to the budget financing. The results of the assessment have shown that, from the point of view of social security protection, Perm Krai has entered a stage of deep recession, which started in 2012. Similar tendencies are observed in the Sverdlovsk region. Nevertheless, considering both a visible variety and the dominating influence of Perm Krai and Sverdlovsk region on the social and economic development of the Volga and Ural Federal Districts respectively, the given comparison is of scientific and practical interest.

Architectonics of the Analysis and Information System “Anti-Crisis”
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The article presents the flowchart of the and analysis and information system “Anti-crisis” intended for the integrated assessment of the parameters of the economic security of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. This system takes into account the risks, threats and their forecasting. The scheme reflects the interaction of separate program modules. The integration of modules with the unified database management system is described: access to the database, automatic backup and recovery of databases in real time, data transmission through an open channel with the use of modern encryption-decryption algorithm. The main units of the system are allocated: a diagnostic block of the economic security condition, block of the well-being of an individual and the territory of residence, block of extremism, correlation block, block of modelling and forecasting the security of the entities of the Russian Federation. Within the block of the modelling, the main generalized mathematical model based on the system of the nonlinear differential equations and created for the purpose to take into account the correction coefficients, as well as all types of interaction of indicators, is given. The main types of optimization problems of the interaction of indicators by using the generalized model, are compiled. On the basis of the developed optimization problems, the forecasting from 2016 to 2020 is made.

Economic Tomography: Opportunity to Foresee and Respond to Socio-Economic Crises
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In the article, the approach based on the authors’ hypothesis is considered: the development of Russia has specific characteristics (on the one hand, its size, mentality and certain closed nature of its economy, on the other hand, the considerable dominating resource and human potential, and, as the result, its real role in the world economic community). The diagnostics of these characteristics (at the level of the individual’s welfare and territory of accommodation) reveals crises, estimates threats to region socio-economic development at early stages and helps to evaluate the state of a region for 3-5 years. In other words, managers have time necessary for rapid response to the crisis phenomena and administrative mistakes, for decreasing the impact of the arising threats. The purpose of the article is to present the theoretical and methodological tools of the appearing threats recognition at their early stages, which allows to enter the crisis period with smaller losses. Computational experiments to classify the prior socio-economic crises have been conducted (9 possible options are considered), the trajectories of change of the main indicators of the individual’s welfare and territory of residence influenced by various factors are digitized. On the basis of the proposed approach (named as the economic tomography), the attempt of the comprehensive assessment of the state of Russian typical representative regions is made.

Welfare And Public Health Of The Population Of Russia: Adaptation To Economic Instability
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In the article, the results of the research of correlation of welfare and public health of the population of Russia in the conditions of economic instability are presented. The review of performance indicators of development of public sentiments of society applied both in Russian and foreign practice is submitted. The concept content of the “social and psychological potential of a region” as an indicator of public health of the population is opened. On the basis of this concept, the potential pattern is created. The evaluation method of social and psychological potential of a region is developed, its main idea is an integrated assessment of both the potential of a region in general and its separate components. The assessment of the condition of potential in territorial subjects of the Russian Federation is given. Character and power of correlation between indicators of welfare and level of social and psychological potential of territorial subjects of the Russian Federation on the basis of development of correlation matrixes are revealed, also, the regional consistent patterns and tendencies are determined.

Transformation of theoretical-methodological approaches and methodical tools of the individual and territory welfare diagnostics. Part 1. From spreading to the alternative diagnostics approaches (background)
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This article presents an evolution of theoretical and methodological approaches to the welfare study. Existing theories of wellbeing are grouped according to accounted method of goods and resources distribution among society members. As a welfare future as a category we highlight objective (measured) and subjective (estimated) components. Based on the analysis of scientific literature we determine the ratio of individual and social welfare. The main differences between the categories of “ welfare” and “wealth” are given. The main difference consists in multidirectional changes of welfare and wealth for an increase (decrease) in income of the individual (country). In this article we present an analysis of modern approaches to the definition of welfare: state, institutional and expendable approach. The welfare level estimation is complicated due to the need to consider the subjective component. The article provides an analysis of existing approaches to quantitative welfare evaluation ranging from the most common techniques (HDI, GDP) to alternative techniques (Happy Planet Index).Methodological devices are structured by levels of welfare assessment objects (world, country, region, people). Based on the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of methods we can conclude that the most reliable method is a comprehensive approach, which includes economic, environmental, social, vital and infrastructure indicators. The author’s approach to the formation of a complex methodological tool for individual and territory welfare estimation is presented in this article.

Synergetic method of a quantitative forecasting of economic times series
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In the article, a synergetic method of the economic time series forecasting on the basis of the modified method of Hurst is discussed. It is a new nonlinear method of predicting the development of economic systems according to time series on macro- and mesolevels. The main theorem underlying the forecasting method is formulated and strictly proved: for a chaotic series of a particular length it is possible to specify a time interval where the series is reliably predicted with the Hurst exponent more than 0.5. The examples of the fractal characteristics’ calculation and the forecasting taking into account time of reliable forecast of the socioeconomic indexes’ behavior — oil prices, natural gas prices, the Dow Jones index, the «euro-dollar» prices, the Gross Domestic Product, and some other indicators at the regional level are given. All calculations are carried out by means of the specialized software product upgraded for the task solution set in this article.

Assessment of damage from reduction of expected lifespan due to cancer
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This paper presents the theoretical and methodological approaches to the assessment of damage from premature mortality and reduction of life expectancy due to various reasons. The concepts measuring the price of a human life are analyzed: the evaluation from the standpoint of the theory of human capital; indirect estimation taking into account non-monetary social costs; evaluation of individuals’ willingness to pay for the elimination of the risk of death; estimation based on the determination of insurance premiums and compensations under court decision; evaluation of the social investments, aimed to reduce the risk of premature mortality of the individual. The following indexes were calculated for all subordinate entities of the Russian Federation: reduction of life expectancy, lost years of potential life in the working age, and gross regional product lost due to the reduction of years of potential life in the working-age population as a result of cancer.

Assessment of damage from reduction of expected lifespan due to cancer
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This paper presents the theoretical and methodological approaches to the assessment of damage from premature mortality and reduction of life expectancy due to various reasons. The concepts measuring the price of a human life are analyzed: the evaluation from the standpoint of the theory of human capital; indirect estimation taking into account non-monetary social costs; evaluation of individuals’ willingness to pay for the elimination of the risk of death; estimation based on the determination of insurance premiums and compensations under court decision; evaluation of the social investments, aimed to reduce the risk of premature mortality of the individual. The following indexes were calculated for all subordinate entities of the Russian Federation: reduction of life expectancy, lost years of potential life in the working age, and gross regional product lost due to the reduction of years of potential life in the working-age population as a result of cancer.

Changing the paradigm of region's economic security research
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This paper shows the changes in theoretical and methodological approaches to the diagnosis of the economic security of the regions that have taken place over the last 20–25 years. This period covers a complex way, which Russia overcame since the beginning of perestroika, when the country faced two crises, surviving changing socio-economic structure and choosing the path of innovative development. The authors suggest that an assessment of the «health» of the regions in terms of economic security and the division into separate spheres is an effective methodological tool that allows not only ascertaining the state, but also looking into the future development. This paper, on the one hand, is a kind of report on the results of the Ural scientific school on the issues of economic security, on the other hand, it demonstrates the authors’ opinion (not always coinciding with other researchers') on this issue.

Theoretical and methodological approaches to the diagnosis of the region's state material reservation system status
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This paper deals with the structural components of the state reservation theory with the elements of decomposition and tools of studies performed on private lines. A method for diagnosing the state material reservation system (SMRS) as part of economic security in the region is presented. Extensive tests of the methodological apparatus of SMRS assessment on the example of the Ural Federal District have been made.

Differentiation of population income and poverty problem (based on the data of Tyumen region)
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The given article presents the results of analyzing differentiation in cash income of Tyumen region population. The analysis of differentiation has been done with indicators of Foster-Greer-Thorbeek for the territories- members of Tyumen region — KhMAO, YaNAO and South of the region. Social policy conducted in the region during the last decade has been evaluated and set of measures meant to improvement of status of poor population has been suggested.

Differentiation of population income and poverty problem (based on the data of Tyumen region)
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The given article presents the results of analyzing differentiation in cash income of Tyumen region population. The analysis of differentiation has been done with indicators of Foster-Greer-Thorbeek for the territories- members of Tyumen region — KhMAO, YaNAO and South of the region. Social policy conducted in the region during the last decade has been evaluated and set of measures meant to improvement of status of poor population has been suggested.

Theoretical and methodological approach to forecasting of socio-demographic development of a region
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The basic problems of current socio-demographic development of Russian regions are considered raising the need to find socio-economic and socio-psychological reasons for current demographic tendencies. Th eoretical substantiation of a demographic situation in Russia taking into account characteristics of the second demographic transition and influence of social stress has been given. Definition of the concept “eff ective sociodemographic development of a region” owing to synergetic effect in terms of socio-economic and demographic system interaction has been suggested. The forecasting method of socio-demographic region development on the basis of sharing of synergy and simulation modeling has been offered. Probabilistic forecasts of the population size of the Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation being parts of the Ural Federal District till 2025 have been obtained; the given forecasts are to estimate possible ways of socio-demographic development of the Ural Federal District.

National policy in reference to labor remuneration and its influence on poverty dynamics in a region
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The paper emphasizes urgent issues regarding labor remuneration, which need to be settled along with adoption of socioeconomic policy aimed at critical reduction in size of the poor population.

National policy in reference to labor remuneration and its influence on poverty dynamics in a region
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The paper emphasizes urgent issues regarding labor remuneration, which need to be settled along with adoption of socioeconomic policy aimed at critical reduction in size of the poor population.

The influence of ecological and economic security on region's investment appeal
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In the article authors reveal regional aspect of the problem of influence the ecological factor on investment appeal. This allows considering from the point of ecological and economic security. The choice of the type of investment policy in different scenarios of social-economic development of the region.

Socio-demographic safety of regions of Russia: current condition and problems of diagnostics
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The basic problems of development of socio-demographic sphere in Russia at the present stage and the tendency of their change are considered in the article. The methodical device of diagnostics of socio-demographic safety of territories is offered. In basis of it lays using of indicator analysis method. The researches based both on official statistics, and on calculations of the latent dynamic characteristics are considered. The special attention is given to diagnostics of real number of addicts. The condition and dynamics of change of socio-demographic safety in federal districts of the Russian Federation for the period of 2000 - 2006 is shown. The primary goals are put which performance will lead to a output of Russia from the developed demographic crisis.

Scene analysis as a basis of optimal actions against shadow economy
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A conclusion about assess method of shadow economy and decreasing its damage to the region economy. The methodology provides diagnostics of current and forecast crisis conditions caused by influences of shadow economy. The developed methodology is applied at consequences analysis of the actions against shadow economy damages bringing to social and economical development.

About few approaches to commercial bank percentage policy construction in crediting population
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In the article we consider some aspects of Russian Federation and Sverdlovsk region bank sector development and few principles of credit organization percentage policy construction. We also describe interest rate calculation methods depending on currency toolkit and the received results of using the methods in reference to population crediting development. Besides we give some offers on increasing management efficiency of percentage policy and decreasing delayed credit debts level and some offers on specification of population crediting development forecasts in Sverdlovsk region.

Optimum parity of economic and administrative measures at ounteraction to shadow economy
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Under the economical-mathematical apparatus of multi-indicated estimation of the shadow economy dynamics in region quantitative estimation of factors made an impact on exchange of shadow economy volume was carried out. Modeling also has allowed to reveal the indicators adequately estimating dynamics of shadow economy. On the basis analysis of shadow economy of regions we worked out the conception for neutralization of shadow economy in UFD, based on optimum parity of economic and administrative measures.

Improvements of budget management efficiency based on strategy management system
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The economic and finance efficiency of enterprise activity is one of the competitive-ness factors in the conditions of modern market. Two indicatives are the basis of economic and finance evaluation: liquidity ratio and profit ratio. Budget management is the unique technology, which can run liquidity and profitability by the system of budgets together. In this article the author describe the way of improvements in budgeting management by the sys-tem of BSC (Balanced Score Card). This tool gives a possibility to connect the system of budget management and the system of strategy management.

Can “the ideal” economic models be considered comprehensible ?!
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This article opens the cycle of authors’ publications on the questions of theoretical approaches and representations of systems’ economics development. Digression of origin and development of social-economical formations is given. The attempt to consider the transformation of systems’ economics with the consideration of latent dynamic characteristics, to reveal the laws of structural-genetic and functional attribute of changing economy forming was made. Also it is offered to consider the models of systems’ economics transformation and their influence on territorial economic safety of different level.

The condition of the Urals metallurgical complex before the introduction of Russia into WTO
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The problem of readiness of the enterprises of a metallurgical complex of Russia and Urals Mountains to work in conditions of connection to WTO is mentioned in the work. The analysis of a modern condition of a complex in Russia and Ural federal district is lead, tendencies of its change during last years are investigated. The methodical approach to an estimation of a condition of the enterprises and their competitiveness on the basis of which it is possible to reveal "narrow" places and the "weak" parties in their activity and to estimate a degree of readiness of the enterprise to work in conditions of WTO is offered. With use of the developed methodical device the estimation of a condition and readiness of the enterprises of the Ural mountain-metallurgical company for the introduction of Russia in WTO is executed.

Социально-экономические последствия распространения наркомании в регионе
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Рассмотрены методические вопросы диагностирования наркоситуации на территории. Приведен состав индикативных показателей для оценки состояния наркоситуации в регионах. Предложены подходы к определению ключевых показателей наркоситуации - фактического количества наркозависимых, критической массы наркозависимых, ущерба от распространения наркомании. Даны результаты диагностики наркоситуации для территорий Уральского федерального округа в период 1999 - 2003 гг. Предложены основные направления работ по противодействию распространению наркомании и нейтрализации ее последствий на территориях округа.

Теневая экономика региона: особенности проявления и методы диагностики
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Предложен подход к решению проблем теневой экономики на основе оценки угроз экономической безопасности региона. Изложена разработанная авторами методика оценки ущерба, наносимого теневой экономикой. Приведен анализ ущерба, наносимого теневой экономикой территории, на примере УрФО. На основании проведенного анализа предложена концепция минимизации негативного влияния теневой экономики.
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