Vasilyeva, Aleksandra Vladimirovna
Academic degree: PhD in Economics
Academic rank:
Country: Russia
City: Ekaterinburg
Workplace: Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences - Ural Branch, Centre for Economic Security,
Position: Research fellow

Keywords

Achievements

Projects


The Forecast of Labour Migration, Reproduction of the Population and Economic Development of Russia
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In the medium and long term, at the remaining decline in the population and insufficient development of labour-saving technologies, Russia will be forced to increase its economic potential by the elements of extensive economic development, covering the growing need for labour by migration gain. In this context, an important task of public administration is to increase the efficiency of regulation of the international labour migration in the regions of Russia taking into account features of their demographic and economic development. That makes relevant the forecasts of interdependent development of migration, the reproduction of the population and of the regional economy of Russia. In the article, for the first time, the author proposes the complex model allowing such forecasting by means of the dynamic system of equations including matching function, the Cobb–Douglas production function and etc. The computer program which is characterized by a high speed of data exchange with statistical bases, calibration and forecasting, a wide choice of services for representation of the received results has allowed to automate the realization of the complex model with the use of the Java/Javascript language. As a result of the implementation of the complex model for statistical data, I made the forecast of labour migration, reproduction of the population and economic development of Russia until 2003. According to the received forecast, even at the maximum use of the potential of labour migration from the CIS countries, the total number of the labour of the Russian Federation by 2030 will be reduced almost by 5 % relatively to 2016 and will be equal to 74684 thousand. At the same time, the absolute deficiency of labour force will be followed by the growth of unemployment rate from 5.8 % to 7.1 %. The predicted situation demonstrates the increase of the structural imbalance of supply and demand in labour market as the abilities of job seeker do not meet the requirements of available vacancies. Except the personnel problems, the growth of the Gross Domestic Product of Russia during the forecast period will be slowed down by the low labour productivity as the result of the labour-intensive type of economy with a high share of manual skills, which has remained from the Soviet period.

Forecast of the Demografic Development of Russia
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In the article, the contemporary issues of the reproduction of the Russian population, their reasons, and state policy toward them are considered. Relevance of the task solution of assessment of the most expected birth rate dynamics of the Russian population in future in the conditions of low norms of the parenthood status taking into account the influence of government measures for the birth rate stimulation is proved. In order to achieve this objective, on the basis of the behavior probability distribution function of crude birth rate, the probabilistic assessment of the future birth rate dynamics of the Russian population was conducted. On the basis of the modernized Hirst method, two expected dynamics trajectories of crude birth rate were constructed: the first trajectory corresponds to the scenario at which the value of crude birth rate will be in the range of 8-10,5 born / 1000 people (probability — 0,182), including the negative external impact, the second trajectory will be in the range of 13-16,5 born / 1000 people (probability — 0,618), including the positive external impact. In spite of the fact that these scenarios are quite different, the dynamics trajectories of crude birth rate predicted according to them during the period of 2015-2041 that corresponds to the time of the reliable prediction are almost identical. The analysis of the received results enabled to conclude that the state population policy cannot affect the future dynamics of the birth rate due mainly to to the conjunctural changes.These conclusions confirm the intellectual vested interest of the academic circles that government regulation of a demographic situation in Russia has to be aimed, first of all, at the health improvement and increase of the expected life interval of the population.

Future Development Of Migration Processes And Labour Market In The Regions Of Russia
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Russia’s reasons for the continuing need of the foreign labor influx were researched. Forecast of the interdependent labor market development and migration processes in the regions of Russian is proposed as a scientific basis for better regulation of the international labor migration. The genesis of approaches to migration modeling, revealing the lack of tools for the simultaneous prediction of migration processes and the labor market was studied. A developed model complex allows to predict: 1) migration flows, determined by the wages level difference and the distance between the country of origin and the destination regions, number of potential migrants in countries of origin and the number of migrants who arrived earlier in the regions of destination; 2) migrants’ employment in the region, considering changes in the job availability as a result of the migrants influx to the regional labor markets, characterized by search tensions; 3) the level of wages in the region, considering the bargaining power of the worker. The application of the model complex to the statistical data resulted in obtaining of the forecast flows of migrants in the Russian regions from the CIS and their influence on the regional labor markets development up to 2020. Based on this forecast, the recommendations to improve the management of the international labor migration in the Russian regions were developed.

Model complex of forecasting of interdependent development of migration processes and region labour market
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The essential problems of current international labor migration raising the need to forecast interdependent labor market and migration processes in a region for improving the effectiveness of regional migration policy in Russia are considered. A model for the prediction of migration flows as determined by wage differentials, distances between populations of the regions as well as wages and unemployment, which come from the impact of migration on the availability of jobs at the labor market with search-matching frictions for source and host regions is presented in the framework of search and matching theory. Applying the model to statistical data, the forecast for labor migration flows to regions of Russia from CIS countries, as well as its effects on regional labor markets for 2012-2021 is maid. Recommendations for improving the effectiveness of regional migration policy are given on the basis of the forecast.

Dynamic multiregional model of labour migration: construction and realization
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This paper presents a dynamic multiregional model of labor migration in continuous time within the framework of the neoclassical economics. The model can predict the dynamics of migration flows as well as the dynamics of economic effects of migration simultaneously for host regions and source countries. Thanks to liberalization of the migratory legislation of the Russian Federation in 2007, the model can be used for Russian regions and CIS states, which citizens were granted entry without a visa and a simplified procedure of employment in Russia. Employing the model to statistical data, forecast trajectories of migration flows to Russian regions from CIS states have been received for the period since 2010 to 2016. The predicted migration looks quite realistic and has important policy consequences. In particular, these findings can be used for developing work permit quotas.

Dynamic multiregional model of labour migration: construction and realization
(Show Details...)
This paper presents a dynamic multiregional model of labor migration in continuous time within the framework of the neoclassical economics. The model can predict the dynamics of migration flows as well as the dynamics of economic effects of migration simultaneously for host regions and source countries. Thanks to liberalization of the migratory legislation of the Russian Federation in 2007, the model can be used for Russian regions and CIS states, which citizens were granted entry without a visa and a simplified procedure of employment in Russia. Employing the model to statistical data, forecast trajectories of migration flows to Russian regions from CIS states have been received for the period since 2010 to 2016. The predicted migration looks quite realistic and has important policy consequences. In particular, these findings can be used for developing work permit quotas.

Modeling of budgetary funding influence on socio-demographic processes of a region
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This paper describes a method of modeling socio-demographic processes in a region based on the minimax approach. In this method, the simulated socio-demographic processes reflect the performance of a population fertility age model, reproductive systems and the structure of mortality, as management impact tools of fiscal spending on socially significant budget items (health, physical culture and sport, social policy, education, environmental protection) are considered. Testing methodology on the examples of the Russian Federation subjects included in the Ural Federal District is presented. Peculiarities of influence of funding of each socially important item on the social and demographic processes in the regions of the Ural Federal District are shown. Priorities of distribution of funds based on the level of budgetary provision in the region to ensure optimization of socio-demographic development of the region are shaped.

Problems and prospects of socially-demographic development of Russian region (on the example of Sverdlovsk region)
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The state and dynamics of change of socio-demographic safety of Sverdlovsk region during 2000−2009 is shown, the most problem spheres of ability to live are marked out. Priority directions and target values of increase of level of socio-demographic safety of Sverdlovsk region for the period till 2020 are defined. Forecasts of indicators of reproduction of population and likelihood forecasts of population of Sverdlovsk region for the period till 2020 under three scenarios are developed. The estimation of expected level of socio-demographic safety of Sverdlovsk region for 2020 with breakdown on blocks is received.

Problems and prospects of socially-demographic development of Russian region (on the example of Sverdlovsk region)
(Show Details...)
The state and dynamics of change of socio-demographic safety of Sverdlovsk region during 2000−2009 is shown, the most problem spheres of ability to live are marked out. Priority directions and target values of increase of level of socio-demographic safety of Sverdlovsk region for the period till 2020 are defined. Forecasts of indicators of reproduction of population and likelihood forecasts of population of Sverdlovsk region for the period till 2020 under three scenarios are developed. The estimation of expected level of socio-demographic safety of Sverdlovsk region for 2020 with breakdown on blocks is received.

Theoretical and methodological approach to forecasting of socio-demographic development of a region
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The basic problems of current socio-demographic development of Russian regions are considered raising the need to find socio-economic and socio-psychological reasons for current demographic tendencies. Th eoretical substantiation of a demographic situation in Russia taking into account characteristics of the second demographic transition and influence of social stress has been given. Definition of the concept “eff ective sociodemographic development of a region” owing to synergetic effect in terms of socio-economic and demographic system interaction has been suggested. The forecasting method of socio-demographic region development on the basis of sharing of synergy and simulation modeling has been offered. Probabilistic forecasts of the population size of the Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation being parts of the Ural Federal District till 2025 have been obtained; the given forecasts are to estimate possible ways of socio-demographic development of the Ural Federal District.

Estimation of demographic policy in the framework of effective region development maintenance mechanism
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The basic problems of current socio-demographic development of regions in Russia are considered raising the need to formulate and solve the task of maintaining its efficiency. The definition of “effective socio-demographic territory development” concept is suggested and given is the mechanism of its maintenance under conditions of second demographic transition from the systematic approach point of view. The estimation method of how successfully the demographic policy is being carried out in the region is suggested in the framework of the abovementioned mechanism. This method has been approved by the Ural federal district territories.

Estimation of influence of the enterprises of the large integrated structures on parameters of socially-demographic safety of territories of the municipal level
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The basic problems of development of socio-demographic sphere in Sverdlovsk region at the present stage are considered. The methodical approach of the account of influence of the enterprises of the large integrated structures on indicators socio-demographic safety of territories of municipal level is presented. The approbation estimation of influence of the enterprises of the large integrated structures on socio-demographic safety on an example of municipal unions of Sverdlovsk region for 2000-2006 is executed.

Socio-demographic safety of regions of Russia: current condition and problems of diagnostics
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The basic problems of development of socio-demographic sphere in Russia at the present stage and the tendency of their change are considered in the article. The methodical device of diagnostics of socio-demographic safety of territories is offered. In basis of it lays using of indicator analysis method. The researches based both on official statistics, and on calculations of the latent dynamic characteristics are considered. The special attention is given to diagnostics of real number of addicts. The condition and dynamics of change of socio-demographic safety in federal districts of the Russian Federation for the period of 2000 - 2006 is shown. The primary goals are put which performance will lead to a output of Russia from the developed demographic crisis.

Forecasting of parameters of demographic sphere of Sverdlovsk region
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The modelling device of forecasting of demographic parameters of region is offered in the article. In basis of it lays using of regression analysis method. Scripts of socio-economic development of Sverdlovsk region for the period of 2006 − 2015 under the factors entering into models are developed. Results of the forecast of the basic parameters of demographic sphere of Sverdlovsk region for the period up to 2015 are resulted.
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