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#3 2017
New research related to regional economy

Specificities of Spatial System Transformation and Strategies of the Russian Arctic Redevelopment under the Conditions of Climate Changes
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A bunch of papers has been published by foreign and Russian researchers on climate change impact on the environment and regional socioeconomic development. The bulk of them is focused on analyzing drivers and impact assessments for the Arctic region characterized by the most intensive climate change worldwide. The paper puts to the fore a nontrivial issue of considering the climate change impact factor within the methodology and practice of the strategic process of the Russian Arctic redevelopment. The issue above is complicated by the imperative of ranking of the salience of the climate change socioeconomic implications as priorities of the governance and public administration of the comprehensive development of the macro-region under consideration. The lack of the effective tools for consolidation of the needed resources further exacerbates it. The summary of the findings of the national and international researchers in the area of climate change impact on environment, settlements and economic activity in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF) is introduced to substantiate the policy decisions made. We have specified the methodological issues related to peculiarities and role of the climate change factor plays in policy decisions within the context of contemporary knowledge on patterns of spatial systems transformation, their capabilities of selforganization and adaptation to externalities. The authors have revealed the general regularities and specificity of the AZRF transformation as a spatial system and the impact of climate change produced on this process. We have particularly emphasized the issues of adaptation to climate change of the AZRF indigenous population whose health and economic activities experience increased risks associated with high intensiveness of the climatic fluctuations. Recommendations for using scenario (variation) approach to redesigning strategies and programs of AZRF development are substantiated.

Formation of Behavioural Finance as the Natural Stage of the Human Model Evolution in Economics
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The paper presents the background analysis of the formation of human model in economics. in the conditions of the constantly performing development of the economic science until the neoclassic paradigm and its modifications. Among them is behavioural finance, which presents a special interest for modern researchers. The evolution of the model of making economically significant decisions in inter-temporal and essential dimensions is the subject matter of the research. We have shown that the concept of the economic human model itself is the multidimensional one. In parallel with the processes of economical, social and political changes and economic science development, the economic human model was becoming more complex and relevant for each period of time. In this regard, we followed the stages of defining the concept of “subject rationality”. The study determines the significant traits implemented by researchers to create a full and consistent human model. We demonstrate the gradual development of economists’ idea of different types of the motivation of economic agents. Along with the financial factors of motivation, the scientists begin to take into account non-financial ones. This approach can help researchers get more “humanistic” view at the economic human. The modern concept of the economic human with attention to its implicit restrictions is formed through the complication of requirements to the rationality and its components crystallization. In the paper, we characterize contribution of the domestic scientists to the development of new directions of economic theory. The research describes the role of different regional economic scientific schools in the process of the formation of the Russian behavioural finance school

Criteria, Probability and Degree of Instability of Employment Taking into Account the Features of the Russian Labour Market
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The article reveals the issues of the global character of precarization and substantiates the criteria of precarious employment taking into account its special aspects in Russian Federation. The existing variability of approaches to the definition of precarious employment and the necessity to elaborate its optimal criteria in view of features of national labour have conditioned the relevance of the research. The paper involves international and Russian research on precarity and significantly uses the results of expert survey conducted by the authors in autumn 2016. The experts have considered groups of criteria based on: labour contract term, nature of labour relations, precarious terms of work. The experts also were asked to evaluate different forms of employment in which precarity may exert. As a result of the conducted research, we have elaborated the generalized criteria, which identify various forms of instability in labour market. The authors put forward a hypothesis that the criteria of the International Labour Organization (ILO) need to be adapted to the Russian realities when determining unstable employment, and the phenomenon of precarious employment has to be defined from the point of view of the probabilistic nature of its various manifestations. Based on the results of the research, the authors have qualified the relevance of International Labour Organization’s (ILO) criteria in the Russian context. We also have substantiated the probable character of precarious employment and defined probability of precarity exertion in the flexible forms of employment. The set of precarious employment criteria is specified in accordance with Russian context: we have clarified and complemented them, and defined the probability of precarity exertion in different forms of employment. The main result of the research is the structure of criterial standards, which identifies precarious employment.The conceptual issues and findings of the paper can be used as a theoretical and methodological basis to identify the scale of precarious employment in Russia as well as to evaluate precarity exertion in individual workplace.

Regional Aspects of New Industrialization
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In the article, the authors substantiate the need to consider the regional economic and other conditions when carrying out various essential transformations in the national economy of the country. We have argued the importance of new industrialization for overcoming the technological lag of the country and its regions and for supporting the large-scale structural transformations. We have proved that the complex set of the interconnected concepts and the theories of macro- and microlevels may be the theoretical platform for the paradigm of new industrialization. These are the theory of economic growth, the theory of the modernization of the economy, the theory of the change of technological ways during the industrial revolutions, theories of innovative development, developments in the field of the institutional theory. The authors have shown that the transition to new industrialization is the fundamental historical pattern for the majority of the countries of the world, including industrially developed ones. The purpose of the article is to identify the brightest tendencies and features of the development of the Ural macro-region in the years of market reforms as well as the definition of the strategic transformations in the context of the formation of new industrialization. The hypothesis of the research assumes that the revealed regional features of the Ural macroregion’s economic development are the prerequisites of its development as the centre of the modernization of the Russian economy. On the basis of the analysis of three groups of statistic data for the twenty-five year period of liberal and monetary reforms, the brightest tendencies and features of the development of the Ural macro-region are revealed. We have emphasized that the Ural macro-region has managed to keep its historically developed code — the industrial model of the economy, which have been developing for many decades. The authors have made a significant contribution of new statistical information to the knowledge of regional economy because, since 2000, the regional statistics in the country have been operated to the data on federal districts, but not on large economic districts. We have allocated and considered several strategic directions of the structural transformations promoting the activation of the processes of the formation of new industrialization in the space of studied macro-region. The results of the research can serve as a reference point for the strategies of regional development

Institutions of Scientific Efficiency: Organizations of the Middle Urals
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In the article, the authors show that the main institutions of scientific efficiency are the institutions that publish scientific articles in Russian and international journals as well as monographs, scientific conference abstracts, pre-prints, reviews, reports, and also the institutions that register patents. The purpose of the research is the development of the indicator for the evaluation of the dysfunction of the institutions of scientific efficiency depending on different types of transaction coasts; and verification of the authors’ indicator of scientific efficiency by the empirical study of the scientific organizations’ activities. In the research, we applied the methods of the system, logical and economic analysis. The empirical information was processed using the methods of statistical analysis and correlation analysis. On the basis of different scientific efficiency of the central and regional institutions confirmed by Scopus data, the authors have proved that the scientific efficiency of regional scientific institutions and central ones need to be analysed separately. We have determined the dysfunctions of these institutions depending on different types of transaction coasts. We have developed the indicator for the assessment of the dysfunction of scientific efficiency institutions depending on different types of transaction coasts. The authors have introduced the indicator of scientific efficiency equal to the ratio of the dynamics of the increment of scientific results to the dynamics of the increase of transaction coasts. Depending on a type of the analyzed transaction coasts, the indicator of scientific efficiency illustrates the efficiency of various economic institutions. On the basis of the analysis of the research findings of the middle Urals’ scientific organizations, we have arrived at the conclusion that the institutions that publish articles in the Russian and foreign scientific journals are efficient. We defined the dysfunctions of the institutions that publish articles in the Russian and foreign scientific journals depending on different types of transaction coasts. The authors conclude that it is efficient to increase certain types of transaction coasts. The received results can be applied by regional scientific institutions to increase the efficiency of their scientific activity.

The Processes of Denationalization and Privatization in Russia in the 1990s. Part 2
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The synthesis and systematization of the literature on the history of modern economic reform, accumulated over more than twenty years, allow us to streamline the existing ideas about the processes occurring in the framework of transformations and to set a new vector for comprehending the socio-economic development of Russia in the last decade of the 20th century and the first decades of the 21st century. A step in this direction is the analysis of publications reflecting the preparation, progress and results of state and municipal property privatization in the 1990s. The historiographical review includes monographs and articles written by both the apologists of accelerated privatization, and their opponents and critics. The review of this literature reveals a range of opinions on the preferences for the denationalizing Russian economy, evaluation of the results of privatization by the end of the 1990s, and the possibility of alternative ways to improve the efficiency of domestic enterprises. In particular, it is noted that the apologists of accelerated privatization (E. T. Gaidar, A. B. Chubais) focus on the quantitative indicators of State and municipal property transfer into private ownership. Critics of the Government’s privatization option prefer talking about qualitative implications of “property revolution”, including reducing the efficiency of privatized enterprises, falling living standards, deteriorating the legal status of employees. In the first part of the article, the author analyses the publications dedicated to the study of the foreign experience of privatization preceding the preparations for the reform of the property relations in Russia and to the evaluation of the process and results of the accelerated privatization from the position of Government supporters of the course of market reforms in the domestic economy.

Actuarial Evaluation of Pension Risks of Russia: from Theory to Practice
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The article discusses the origins of the development of pension systems in the world, shows the causes of the emergence of various models of public pension provision. We pay a particular attention to the history of the formation of the Russian pension system, and analyse the stages and causes of modern reform. From the position of modern legislation, we systemise the forms, types of pension provision and pension insurance in the Russian Federation from the point of view of the sources of financing and subjects of pension relations. The authors have defined the concept of “actuarial evaluation” from the point of view of the process and system approach. We have revealed the content of the pension risk category, as well as classified the pension risks by the spheres of origin. The authors have developed the methodology of actuarial estimation of the risks of the pension system classified by different criteria: demographic, economic, financial, labor risks. The proposed methodological approach to the evaluation of pension risks is based on the comprehensive assessment of socio-economic indicators and the identification of dependencies between socio-demographic and economic processes in the pension system and economy of the country. The authors have tested the developed tools on the actuarial estimation of the pension risks of the Russian Federation. The article presents the results of calculations and identifies critical risks for the Russian pension system. We have proved that stagnation processes in the economy and a high share of the shadow economy represent the greatest threat to the Russian pension system in the short term, whereas, the aging of the population and the increase in life expectancy — in the long term.
Socio-economic problems of region

Conceptual Approach to Forming the Basic Code of Neo-Industrial Development of a Region
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In the article, the authors propose the conceptual fundamentals of the “code approach” to the regional neo-industrial development. The purpose of the research is to reveal the essence of the transition to a new type of industrial and economic relations through a prism of “genetic codes” of the region. We consider these codes as a system of the “racial memory” of a territory, which determines the specificity and features of neo-industrialization realization. We substantiated the hypothesis about the influence of the “genetic codes” of the region on the effectiveness of the neo-industrialization. We have defined the participants, or else the carriers of the codes in the transformation of regional inheritance for the stimulation of the neoindustrial development of region’s economy. The subject matter of the research is the distinctive features of the functioning of the determinative region’s codes. Their content determines the socio-economic specificity of the region and the features of innovative, informational, value-based and competence-based development of the territory. The determinative codes generate the dynamic codes of the region, which are understood as their derivatives. They have a high probability of occurrence, higher speed of development and distribution, internal forces that make possible the self-development of the region. The scientific contribution is the substantiation of the basic code of the regional neo-industrial development. It represents the evolutionary accumulation of the rapid changes of its innovative, informational, value-based and competence-based codes stimulating the generation and implementation of new ideas regarding to economic entities adapted to the historical and cultural conditions. The article presents the code model of neo-industrial development of the region described by formulas. We applied the system analysis methods, historical and civilization approaches, evolutionary and institutional theory, economic and mathematical methods. Moreover, in the article, the authors presented the findings for the period 2011–2016 reflecting the empirical estimation of the importance of informational, institutional, innovative, value-based and competence-based codes. We made this estimation through the survey of population, representatives of business and authorities, students, as well as the professors of the leading universities of the Ural Federal District. The focus of the recommendations for the region is the acceleration of the transition to the new type of industrial development. The research results can be used when developing the programmes and projects of neo- and reindustrialization at both federal and regional levels.

The Desired Image of the Future Economy of the Industrial Region: Development Trends and Evaluation Methodology
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In the article, the authors emphasize that industrial regions play an important role in the increasing of technological independence of Russia. We show that the decline in the share of processing industries in the gross regional product can not be treated as a negative de-industrialization of the economy. The article proves that the increase in the speed of changements, instability of socio-economic systems, the diverse risks predetermine the need to develop new methodological approaches to predictive research. The studies aimed at developing a technology for the design of the desired image of the future and the methodology for its evaluation are of high importance. For the initial stage of the research, the authors propose the methodological approach for assessing the desired image of the future of metallurgy as one of the most important industry of the region. We propose the term of «technological image of the regional metallurgy». We show that repositioning the image of the regional metallurgical complex is quite a long process. This have determined the need to define the stages of repositioning. The proposed methodology of the evaluation of desired future includes the methodological provisions to quantify the characteristics of goals achieved at the respective stages of the repositioning of the metallurgy. The methodological approach to the design of the desired image of the future implies the following stages: the identification of the priority areas of the technological development of regional metallurgy on the basis of bibliometric and patent analysis; the evaluation of dynamics of the development of the structure of metal products domestic consumption based on comparative analysis and relevant analytical methods as well as its forecasting; the design of the factor model, allowing to identify the parameters quantifying the technological image of the regional metallurgy based on the principal components method,; systematization of predicted values of the parameters defining the stages of repositioning and designing the new technological image of the regional metallurgy; the development of mathematical model for the recognition of the technological image of a regional metallurgy on the basis of neural networks.

On the Problems of Strategic Development of Tourism in the Regions of Russia (Case of the Krasnodar Region and the Resort City of Sochi)
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The article deals with the problems of strategic development of tourism in the economy of the Russian regions. These problems arise in the period of transition from regulatory functions of the market to the management of long-term development based on the strategic objectives and flagship projects that can achieve these goals in practice. In such a case, the tourism sector of the regional economy is suggested to be considered not within the narrow framework of the tour operator and hotel business activity as it takes place in Russia, but on the much broader scale involving 50 branches of the modern economy as it is increasingly used worldwide. The authors’ hypothesis comes from the fact that in modern conditions, the development and implementation of the strategies of the recreation and tourism industries in the Russian regions can only be effective through the creation and promotion of large diversified knowledge-based competitive regional tourism products at new technological level. The paper clearly demonstrates the group methods of regional strategic planning such as brainstorming and foresight (forecasting and future shaping). The results of the research substantiate not only the need to amend the legislative framework and the current management system of the Russian tourism, to actively elaborate and implement the regional development strategies, to carry out tourism development studies aimed at its commercial success but also the importance of convincing representation of the civilizational advantages of the Russian world and Russian civilization through the tourism.

Empirical Evaluation of the Contribution of Infrastructure Capital to the Development of the Region (Based on the Data of Ural Economic Region)
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The article considers the infrastructure capital relating to the regional economy as a tool for economic development and proposes the authors’ approach to its definition and classification. The indicators of the subjects of the Ural economic region in the period from 2005 to 2015, collected by Federal State Statistics Service of Russian Federation, serve as the initial data. The purposes of the study are to compare the calculated (the optimal in a model) and actual values of infrastructure capital in the structure of the region’s economy, which the authors divide into manufacturing and infrastructure sectors; and to assess its impact on the gross output of the manufacturing industries. The authors put forward the following hypothesis: the infrastructure input as a factor of production function has a positive and significant impact on the value of the gross output of the sector. The methodology of the study is represented by the econometric assessment of the elasticities of the outputs of sectors of the economy, described by Cobb-Douglas production functions, as well as by the theoretical calculation of the capital’s ratios in the region’s economy. The results confirm the importance of infrastructure input in the formation of the gross output of the Ural economic region. The comparison of the calculated and actual capital allocation ratios along with other indicators suggests the scarcity of capital in both sectors of the regional economy. This fact can be a signal to the regional authorities for rethinking the infrastructure development programs. The authors consider the case of the closed economy, therefore, further research should be concentrated on the open economy with a larger number of regions and other econometric tools.
Socio-economic problems of regions

Urban Economic Growth in the Chinese Heterogeneity Space
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The purpose of the study is to assess the factors of urban economic growth in People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the framework of heterogeneous space, meaning as the regional diversity of economic systems, in the context of the current period of market reforms. The article shows that urban development is a way to achieve a sustainable rate of China’s high economic growth. The author presents the description of the model and spatial characteristics of economic growth & urbanization in China. Using numerous statistical sources, the author has revealed that the high values of China’s economic growth were observed in the conditions of high urbanization rates & low per capita income. I have estimated the factors of urban economic growth in the framework of PRC’s heterogeneous space based on the neoclassical approach. In accordance with the assessment, the author found that spatial heterogeneity has a significant impact on the differences in the ratio of the factors of economic growth in Chinese cities. The contribution of extensive factors continues to play a key role in China’s urban economic growth, with the highest proportion of capital input for coastal cities & towns, and labour input — for interior region’s urban areas. As the assessment showed, intensive factors have a visible impact on economic growth only for coastal cities & towns. The author suggests that the economic growth in China is generated mainly coastal cities & towns, and investments in the interior region’s urban areas only maintain the required employment growth for ensuring social stability. For this reason, the Russian economy needs the extension of relations with agglomerations placed in seaside regions of China as well as the development of innovative and technological joint projects.
Socio-demographic potential of regional development

Territorial Distribution of the Population in the Russian Federation
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In 1931, Robert Gibrat found that the number of the employees of a firm and urban population follow the lognormal distribution. Numerous studies results show that the Gibrat’s law provides a basis for the analysis of the dynamics of the number of the employees of mature and large firms, which have already carved out a niche. Furthermore, the Gibrat’s law allows analyzing the dynamics and laws of the spatial distribution of the population of different countries in a case if their socioeconomic development is sustainable and equilibrium. The purpose of the study is testing the Gibrat’s law for Russian cities and towns of different sizes. If the Gibrat’s law is valid, we can conclude that the spatial distribution of the population in the country is equilibrium and the labour distribution is close to optimal. The opposite result demonstrates the imbalance between the allocation of manufacture and labour force. The author took 2010 national census results as source data. I have tested the hypothesis of the lognormal law of population distribution in Russia over different cities and towns using the Pearson fitting criterion with the value a = 0,05. The results of the study have shown that the distribution of the population over Russia does not follow the Gibrat’s law. As a result, the distribution of the population is uneven, which translates into the significant labour migration from settlements with the small population to large cities. The knowledge of the laws of the territorial distribution of the population and driving factors of population mobility is of importance for the development and implementation of effective socio-economic policy in the country. The definition of the population distribution imbalance over various population centers and the development of recommendations for the creation and optimal location of new production in the country may be the promising area for future research. The study of spatial clustering of population centers and comparative analysis of such clusters with Russian regions in their current administrative borders are important as well.

The Forecast of Labour Migration, Reproduction of the Population and Economic Development of Russia
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In the medium and long term, at the remaining decline in the population and insufficient development of labour-saving technologies, Russia will be forced to increase its economic potential by the elements of extensive economic development, covering the growing need for labour by migration gain. In this context, an important task of public administration is to increase the efficiency of regulation of the international labour migration in the regions of Russia taking into account features of their demographic and economic development. That makes relevant the forecasts of interdependent development of migration, the reproduction of the population and of the regional economy of Russia. In the article, for the first time, the author proposes the complex model allowing such forecasting by means of the dynamic system of equations including matching function, the Cobb–Douglas production function and etc. The computer program which is characterized by a high speed of data exchange with statistical bases, calibration and forecasting, a wide choice of services for representation of the received results has allowed to automate the realization of the complex model with the use of the Java/Javascript language. As a result of the implementation of the complex model for statistical data, I made the forecast of labour migration, reproduction of the population and economic development of Russia until 2003. According to the received forecast, even at the maximum use of the potential of labour migration from the CIS countries, the total number of the labour of the Russian Federation by 2030 will be reduced almost by 5 % relatively to 2016 and will be equal to 74684 thousand. At the same time, the absolute deficiency of labour force will be followed by the growth of unemployment rate from 5.8 % to 7.1 %. The predicted situation demonstrates the increase of the structural imbalance of supply and demand in labour market as the abilities of job seeker do not meet the requirements of available vacancies. Except the personnel problems, the growth of the Gross Domestic Product of Russia during the forecast period will be slowed down by the low labour productivity as the result of the labour-intensive type of economy with a high share of manual skills, which has remained from the Soviet period.
External economic activity

Role of Regions in the Foreign Trade Activity of Russia in the Context of New Geopolitical Challenges
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The authors have considered both the role of territorial subjects of the Federation in the foreign trade activity of Russia and the characteristics of conditions for the implementation of foreign economic relations by the Russian regions. The hypothesis of the research suggests that in the current conditions of Russia’s participation in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and new geopolitical challenges in the foreign trade activity, the territorial subjects of the Federation more and more actively realize their constitutional right on international economic relatiens. The role of Russian regions in the development of the foreign trade activity of Russia constantly rises as a single center in modern conditions, is not able to manage all matters relating to foreign trade activity arising in the concrete region of the state. The relevance of the article consists in the need to investigate the change of conditions for the implementation of foreign economic activity by territorial subjects of the Federation as during the current period, regions play more important role in the development of the foreign trade activity of Russia. The authors assessed the impact of WTO, whose member Russia became in 2012 on its foreign trade. The assessment has shown an absence of any real notable positive or negative consequences. The politicization of world economy is the characteristic of the present stage of its development. Thus, the world markets are more dependent on political factors than on other ones. The results of the conducted research can be applied and used for the development and realization of the regional model and strategy of foreign trade activity. The future research will be focused on the development and improvement of the model of the implementation of foreign economic activity by the territorial subjects of the Russian Federation.

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Iran is an oil exporting country in Middle East. The high share of the oil revenues in Iran is a serious economic problem. Due to the high dependency of Iran’s economy on oil revenues, oil price shocks have a determinant impact on macroeconomic variables. In this paper, we analyze the dynamic effects of oil price shocks and the aggregate supply and aggregate demand shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Iran. According to macroeconomic theory and aggregate demand and supply model in equilibrium, a structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model is applied to identify different structural shocks and further assess the relative contributions of different shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations, using a decomposition approach. The results show that oil price shocks have significant and positive effects on both output and inflation. Aggregate supply and aggregate demand shocks are the main causes of fluctuation in output and inflation, and moreover, the effect of aggregate supply shocks on output is permanent in the Iranian economy. On the base of this study results, we suggest the Iranian government should accelerate the economic reforms such as the finance system of state owned enterprises, the tax system, the cash subsidy distribution system, the allocation system of the government budget in national and provincial level, the financial and banking system, and so on. The suggested reforms aim to decrease in the share of oil revenues in the economy and protect the Iranian economy in the face of any exogenous and endogenous shocks.
Industry-specific and inter-industry-specific complexes

Problems of the Assessment of Economic Damage Caused by Power Supply Interruption
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The article is devoted to the development of the methods of the assessment of damage caused by an emergency interruption in the electrical supply of industrial consumers. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the structure of direct and indirect damage and to develop an adequate technique for the quantitative assessment of a full damage caused by the interrupt in electrical supply of various groups of industrial consumers. The analysis of domestic and foreign methodological approaches to the assessment of the damage caused by breaks in an electrical supply allowed to substantiate the structure of a full damage. For this purpose, we propose three groups of techniques. The first method is based on the standard approach. We apply it for a detailed account of the components of damage (real loss, social and economic losses, ecological damage, indirect losses) with reference to the occurred failure. The second technique is based on the use of three groups of typical scenarios of the consequences of an emergency interruption in power supply. These scenarios have resulted from the analysis of the regulation documentation and statistical data on the basic groups of industrial consumers (on the example of gas supply system, these are production facilities, transport, storage, reprocessing and support facilities). The third method is based on the specific indicators of unplanned coasts depending on the size of the disconnected capacity, an interruption duration and the duration of the restoration of electricity. The second and third techniques are developed to forecast the damage and to substantiate the efficiency of measures for improving the reliability of the electrical supply of the industrial consumers. The article includes the results of the assessment of full damage caused by the interruption in the electrical supply through the developed techniques on the example of the gas industry objects. The comparison of the results of the assessment with the real values of damages from the occurred failures would suggest the adequacy of the developed techniques. The appropriate account of the economic damage caused by breaks in the electrical supply would substantiate the measures making energy supplies for the safe and reliable. The reliability of power is the fundamental factor for the economic stability of the country and its regions.

Forecasting of Energy and Petroleum Consumption by Motor Transport in the Regions of the Russian Federation
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The paper offers the directions for the improvement of methodological approach to forecasting the energy consumption in transport, taking into account special features of Russian regions. The authors developed a multivariate model allowing to predict the motor vehicle rate specified for the regions of the Russian Federation depending on the economic, social and institutional features. We formalized the dynamic (trend) model for predicting the effectiveness of energy consumption per unit of the vehicle in Russia with details on Federal districts. In the study, in predicting the number of motor transport, the authors applied the methods of economic and mathematical simulation modelling based on the results of the econometric analysis for the calculation of the population having motor transport. In determining the potential specific energy consumption, we have aggregated trending patterns and convergence. The study has shown that by 2040, the number of passenger cars in Russia will grow to 57.1 million, and the total number of all types of road transport will grow by 14.9 million units to 66.2 million. The highest growth rates are predicted in the Central regions of Russia and in some areas of Siberia. The smallest growth rates are expected in the Chukotka Autonomous District, Kamchatka and Primorsky regions. Energy efficiency in transport and active introduction of alternative motor fuels, primarily methane, will reduce the consumption of gasoline and diesel fuel by motor transport. Thus, in the forecast period of 2018–2040, the consumption of petroleum products by motor transport will be reduced by 8.9 million tons: from 61,9 million tons of oil to 51.7 million tons of oil. The results of the study can be applied for the formulation of proposals on the creation of scientific and methodological apparatus to predict the development of transport sector and oil products supply in of the regions of Russia.

Efficient Location of Distribution Centres and Warehouses in the Territory of a Region
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The article is devoted to the creation of efficient regional logistic infrastructure that has currently a special relevance. The additional task of this problem is a warehouse network formation. The efficient location of warehouses is one of the priority objectives for cross-border regions as it allows them to benefit from membership in a global supply chain, promotes the creation of additional jobs and, finally, leads to the growth of Gross Regional Product (GRP). The authors offer an approach to determine the location of distribution centres and warehouses in the territory of the regions of the Russian Federation. This approach allows solving the problem of the efficient location of warehouse network in a region taking into account its key indicators of socioeconomic development. The implementation of the approach identified the indicators that have a significant impact on a choice of the location of warehouses of a region. Methodological framework of the conducted research includes the methods of ABC and cluster analyses. That provides the identification of the cities and municipal districts of a region, in the territory of which it is expedient to locate warehouses. The developed approach was tested on the example of the Volgograd region. The solution of the problem of warehouse network in this region belongs to the priority one, considering its geographical position and industrial capacity. The analysis of indicator values for the period of 2010–2014 by means of the methods of classical and modern ABC analysis as well as the two-stage cluster analysis allowed the territorial binding of the warehouse network in the Volgograd region. Further, the research showed that when splitting the cities and municipal districts of the region into clusters, the greatest influence is made by such indicators as investments into fixed capital, goods turnover of the motor transport and transportation of goods by the motor transport.

Formation of Protoclusters in the Tank Industry of the Urals in 1941–1945
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The article considers the process of the formation of the tank industry in the Urals during the Great Patriotic War in connection with the aspects of regional development within the large territorial and industrial entities. In modern economic science, such territorial industrial associations are known as «clusters». They mean a group of enterprises, united by a common technological process and management, concentrated to achieve a specific production and economic goal. In the modern world, such associations play a decisive role in managing high-tech and innovative industries in the realities of the market economy. This applies both to the civilian and military engineering, including the large and small production, both to public and private ones. In the Sverdlovsk region, at the present time, there is a large tank-building cluster, concentrated around the Uralvagonzavod Corporation (UVZ) in Nizhny Tagil, which includes a number of production units in the territory of the Ural Federal District. The tank production, which originated in the Urals in 1940-s, and fast developed during the Great Patriotic War, shows the typical features of modern cluster structures. This suggests the existence of so-called «protocluster» formations within the tank industry of the Ural economic region in 1941–1945. The article presents the features of the formation of two major protoclusters in the Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk regions, which have concentrated in their borders a significant economic potential for the production of medium and heavy tanks, as well as automatic control systems based on them. The article discusses the chronology of their occurrence, the member enterprises, the features of their cooperation and interaction within the unified system of the People’s Commissariat of Tank Industry of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR NKTP).

The Economic Performance and Size of Firms: the Case of Russian Health Resort Market
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The article shows how external and internal macro-economic factors (the reduction of real income of the population, the depreciation of the local currency to the US dollar in 2014 -2015, the promotion of Crimea as a direction for health and resort services for Russian citizens) impact on the financial and economic indicators of health and resort organizations in Russia during 2012–2015. The calculations based on a variety of Federal Service of State Statistics data demonstrate the positive dynamics of the development of regional markets of health and resort services, due to the regional markets of health and resort services of Krasnodar, Stavropol and Altai regions and due to the inclusion of the Federal District of Crimea within the Russian macroeconomic indicators. The econometric model based on a sample of 272 organizations proves the hypothesis about the more beneficial impact of the changes in macroeconomic factors for large health and resort organizations (with a total annual revenue of 400 million roubles) compared with smaller organizations. It is expressed in the growth of sales profitability and annual revenue. The calculations have shown that the organization size as an independent variable in a sample of data related to 2014–2015, increased its positive influence on the dependent variable of annual revenue growth comparing to sampling for 2012–2013. The tough financial constraints in the country trigger the discussion of new opportunities and tools for the development of market conditions, which will stimulate the demand for investment in material and technical base renewal and innovations from the side of large health and resort organizations. In addition to improving the transport accessibility of federal resort regions and measures for promoting and improving the quality of the general health and resort infrastructure, there are discussions to create a favorable competitive environment, improve the public procurement system (including the procurement of state-owned companies), as well as to stimulate the market participants to introduce product, marketing and organizational innovations.

Demand on Business Education Services Concerning Companies’ Internationalisation in Italian Marche Region and Sverdlovsk District
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The article is devoted to a comparative research of the demand on business education services from the enterprises, which are engaged in foreign economic activity in the Marche region (Italy) and Sverdlovsk region (Russia) as these regions develop long-term economic cooperation. For corporate development, in the conditions of limited demand in domestic market, the Italian and Russian enterprises have to expand export activity and follow the strategy of internationalization of business, which can be effectively realized at the appropriate business education of personnel. The authors analyze the problems and challenges that companies face while going abroad. Regular business education of the personnel is identified as the most efficient way for overcoming emerging issues. During business education, employees of companies receive necessary knowledge, skills, competences and tools for the work in foreign markets. The authors apply one of the methods of demand market research — in-depth interview. We arranged focus groups and interviews with entrepreneurs, employees, carrying out export-import transactions during the internationalization process, as well as with university professors, and Non-Governmental Organizations’ representatives who further were asked to make their expert evaluation. During the research, the authors identified factors determining the demand on business education during internationalization; proposed the classification of companies depending on their business educational goals and internationalization levels; determined the priorities in the topics of educational programmes for the personnel of the firms participating in the foreign economic activity. On the basis of the received results, we have created recommendations for providers of business education on the offer of the educational programmes, which are the most satisfying the demand of the companies participating in the internationalization process.
Modern tools of analysis and management of economic processes

Methodological Framework for the Evaluation and Analysis of the Potential of the Electric Infrastructure of Russian Regions
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The article is devoted to the analysis and evaluation of the potential of the electric structure of Russian regions. The authors introduce the category of the “potential of electric infrastructure” understood as the integrated indicator characterizing the regional power infrastructure. The authors assess the potential of electric infrastructure on the basis of the proposed methodology and the developed indicators: “the ratio of electricity tariff”, “coefficient of technological connection”, “integral coefficient of electric infrastructure potential.” The article presents the results of testing the developed method on the example of the analysis and evaluation of the characteristics of electric power infrastructure of Russian regions. The result of testing was the construction of a rating of regions by the level of electric infrastructure potential. On the basis of the calculated parameters of electric infrastructure potential, we developed a map and a matrix of indicators of the potential of electric infrastructure of Russian regions. This allowed to classify Russian regions to several groups. The practical value of the map and matrix of the potential of electric infrastructure of Russian regions is the possibility to conduct the comparative assessment of the characteristics of the electric infrastructure of the territorial units and enables more informed management and decision-making concerning the choice of the most effective industrial investment. In addition, based on the developed indicators of electric infrastructure potential, the authors propose the improvement of the existing methods for the evaluation of investment potential of Russian regions. Previous research on the investment potential of regions does not take in account the characteristics of the potential of elecrtic infrastructure. The obtained results are of a theoretical and practical importance and can be used for the energy efficiency management of territorial units as well as for the analysis of the potential of electric infrastructure of possible industrial investments with the aim of increasing it.

Technology Trends Analysis Using Patent Landscaping
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The article is devoted to the analysis and the choice of the priorities in technology development and, particularly, to the use of patent landscaping as a tool for the study of technology trends. Currently, patent activity indicators are often used for technology foresight and for competitive intelligence as well. Nevertheless, causal relationship between these indicators, on the one hand, and strategic and tactical decisions in the sphere of technological development on meso- and microeconomic level, on the other hand, are not adequately investigated to solve practical tasks. The goal of the work is to systemize the challenges of technology trends analysis, which could be effectively solved on the base of patent landscape analysis. The article analyses the patent landscaping methodology and tools, as well as their use for evaluating the current competitive environment and technology foresight. The authors formulated the generalized classification for the criteria of promising technologies for a selected region. To assess the compliance of a technology with these criteria, we propose a system of corresponding indicators of patenting activity. Using the proposed methodology, we have analysed the patent landscape to select promising technologies for the Sverdlovsk region. The research confirmed the hypothesis of the patent landscapes performance in evaluating such technology indicators as stages of the life cycle stage, universality (applicability in different industries), pace of worldwide development, innovations and science availability in the region and potential possibilities for scientific collaboration with international research institutions and universities. The results of the research may be useful to the wide audience, including representatives small and medium enterprises, large companies and regional authorities for the tasks concerned with the technology trends analysis and technology strategy design
Agrictural and food market: new vector of development

Assessment of Trends in Fish Products Consumption by the Citizens of the Republic of Buryatia
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The article is devoted to the assessment of fish products consumption by the citizens of the region. The purpose of the research is the development and application of the tools simulating consumer demand on fish products on the example of the households in the Republic of Buryatia for the “Baikal omul” brand promotion. The authors have found that the rise of consumer demand in world fish products consumption is due to the increase of aquaculture in artificial reservoirs. On the fish market, we have observed the steady differentiation of cultivated fish and fish from natural reservoirs. The rise of prices on fish products significantly changes the segments of consumers especially depending on their incomes. We have found that fish products are significant for the citizens of the Republic of Buryatia. Some key factors of fish products consumption were established. The authors offered the methodological approach of making the survey of the population on consumption of fish products based on the cluster analysis. The methodology toolkit includes the mathematical methods of statistical and survey data processing. We have proved that fish products play an important role in the diet of the citizens of the Republic of Buryatia. There are significant differences in fish consumption according to the income of respondents. The scientific novelty of the study includes establishing the deterrent factors of fish products in the conditions of decreasing incomes and increasing prices on fish market; estimation of traditional kind of processed fish production from the lake Baikal in terms of technology of fermentation for developing a brand and its promotion outwards of local market; applying a differential approach to the analysis of consumers preferences in fish products; reasoning the deficiency of “omul with odor” brand estimation in the context of the prospect development of tourist cluster. The results can be used in marketing promotion of fermented products made of Baikal omul and other potential brands beyond the local market.
Finances of region

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The paper examines the potential determinants of foreign direct investment inflows into the region of Eurasian Economic Union, as well as incentives for investment into other neighboring countries. In the first model, the authors test a hypothesis on country specific foreign direct investment determinants for the Eurasian Economic Union region. The results of fixed effects estimation show that gross domestic product, infrastructure development and secondary education enrollment have a positive statistically significant effect on the foreign direct investment inflows into the region. Conversely, the impact of Customs Union on foreign direct investment appeared to be negative. Furthermore, in the second model of the natural experiment, the authors empirically test the hypothesis on Customs Union’s effect on foreign direct investment while controlling for both country and time effects. The model includes evaluating the impact of the policy change on foreign investment inflows. The natural experiment outcome also points to the negative effect of Eurasian economic integration on foreign direct investment inflows. Although the countries of Eurasian Economic Union have relatively business friendly regulations, such procedures as enforcing contracts, resolving insolvencies and dealing with construction permits are time-consuming. For attracting foreign investment, it is advisable to facilitate such procedures and make the process of setting up a new business less onerous. The research can be used as an outline for further examining of Eurasian economic integration and apart from that, the study results can be applied for practical purposes of policy elaboration aimed at stimulating foreign direct investment into the Eurasian Economic Union.

Round tables
<October 2017>