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#2 2017
New research related to regional economy

Agent-Based Approach for Modelling the Labour Migration from China to Russia
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The article describes the process of labour migration from China to Russia and shows its modelling using the agent-based approach. This approach allows us to simulate an artificial society in a computer program taking into account the diversity of individuals under consideration, as well as to model a set of laws and rules of conduct that make up the institutional environment in which the members of this society live. A brief review and analysis of agent-based migration models presented in the foreign literature are given. The agent-based model of labour migration from China to Russia developed by the Central Economic Mathematical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences simulates human behaviour close to reality, which is based on their internal purposes, determining the agents choice of territory as a place of residence. Therefore, at the development of the agents of the model and their behaviour algorithms, as well as the organization of the environment in which they exist and interact, the main characteristics of the population of two neighbouring countries and their demographic processes have been considered. Using the model, two experiments have been conducted. The purpose of the first of them was to assess the effect of depreciation of the rubble against the yuan on the overall indexes of labour migration, as well as its structure. In the second experiment, the procedure of the search of the information by agents for the migratory decision-making was changing. Namely, all generalizing information on the average salary by types of activity and skill level of employees, both in China and Russia, became available to all agents irrespective of their qualification level.

The Processes of Denationalization and Privatization in Russia in the 1990s. Part 1
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The synthesis and systematization of the literature on the history of modern economic reform, accumulated over more than twenty years, allow us to streamline the existing ideas about the processes occurring in the framework of transformations and to set a new vector for comprehending the socio-economic development of Russia in the last decade of the 20th century and the first decades of the 21st century. A step in this direction is the analysis of publications reflecting the preparation, progress and results of state and municipal property privatization in the 1990s. The historiographical review includes monographs and articles written by both the apologists of accelerated privatization, and their opponents and critics. The review of this literature reveals a range of opinions on the preferences for the denationalizing Russian economy, evaluation of the results of privatization by the end of the 1990s, and the possibility of alternative ways to improve the efficiency of domestic enterprises. In particular, it is noted that the apologists of accelerated privatization (E. T. Gaidar, A. B. Chubais) focus on the quantitative indicators of State and municipal property transfer into private ownership. Critics of the Government’s privatization option prefer talking about qualitative implications of “property revolution”, including reducing the efficiency of privatized enterprises, falling living standards, deteriorating the legal status of employees. In the first part of the article, the author analyses the publications dedicated to the study of the foreign experience of privatization preceding the preparations for the reform of the property relations in Russia and to the evaluation of the process and results of the accelerated privatization from the position of Government supporters of the course of market reforms in the domestic economy.
Socio-economic problems of region

Institutional Assessment of Environmentally Oriented Subsoil Use
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The article solves two relevant problems related to the implementation of the institutional assessment of environmentally oriented subsoil use: 1) the definition of the ‘environmental security’ and 2) the determination of the development level of institutional bases of environmentally oriented subsoil use including the institutional capacity of subsoil use and institutional capacity of environmental security. The article shows an analysis of the existing definitions of “environmental security” and offers the own one. Despite the significant national and foreign experience in the institutional capacity assessment of various processes, there are still some difficulties in defining and measuring the institutional capacity. We eliminate these difficulties by employing 1) original factors, previously identified, and the content of the “institutional capacity” term; 2) quality characteristics for the institutional capacity assessment of the process regulated at the macroeconomic level, and 3) a consistent methodological tool for the institutional assessment of environmentally oriented subsoil use. The study is based on the hypothesis of the necessity of legal and discreet state intervention in the process of subsoil use. Therefore, we identify the evaluation indicator of state regulation in the environmentally oriented subsoil use as the institutional capacity level calculated by using the fuzzy-set theory. As a result, the institutional capacity levels of the environmentally oriented subsoil use have been defined for both the transport corridor «Arctic-Central Asia» and for the countries composing it. The obtained values of the assessment of institutional capacity levels of the environmentally oriented subsoil use can serve as a basis for identifying the vector of its increase.

Formation of the Integrated Approach to the Assessment of the Socio-Economic Development of Regions
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The integrated approach to the assessment of the socio-economic development of subjects of the Russian Federation, which is characterized by systematic character and novelty, is presented in the article. This approach is based on the modern techniques used in this sphere. The main purpose of the comprehensive assessment of a region’s socio-economic development level is the elaboration of a possible solution for the strategic development issues taking into account spatial, geographical, natural, socioinstitutional and other features. The authors propose to estimate the socio-economic climate of the subjects of the Russian Federation by the average values of socio-economic indexes for the three-year period. For comparability of multitemporal indicators and regional distinctions, the indicators measured in monetary units are transformed in the form of their relation to the cost of the fixed set of consumer goods and services. In addition, we estimate the dynamics of comparable indicators in absolute and relative expression and introduce scales for the assessment of the dynamics of socio-economic situation and a level of quality (stability) of dynamics. On the basis of this technique, the authors examine the socio-economic situation of territorial subjects of the Russian Federation in 2012–2014. As a result, we have revealed one of the problems of socio-economic development — the imbalance of the dynamics of the main socio-economic indexes. In the studied period, 7 regions have shown moderate or high growth of the integrated indicator (not less than 9 %), but in 4 of them, the growth was unbalanced of poor quality. Moreover, further 11 regions have shown a considerable and unbalanced decrease in the social-economic situation. This has been revealed on the basis of the integrated indicator. Thus, the offered approach can be applied for an assessment of the level of socio-economic development in Russian regions in medium-term prospect. It can be used for the development of the basic methodological statements as well as for the identification of cause-effect relationship and justification of the priority directions for the development of the subjects of the Russian Federation.

COMPARATIVE POSITIONING OF SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES IN BANGLADESH, THAILAND AND THE PHILIPPINES
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Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) play a significant role in the nation’s economic development process. SMEs provide job opportunities, create wealth, promote modernization and contribute to technological changes. The Asia-Pacific Region is foreseen to be the next economic boom. A comparison of SMEs in Bangladesh, Thailand and the Philippines on their SMEs Landscape, Banking sector, Non-Banking sector and Capital Markets would give a picture of which strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats these countries face. The time period of the study is from August 2016 to January 2017. Based on the secondary sources of data, the research was conducted to examine real scenarios. The study aimed at getting information whether each country would have any benchmark to attain the best practices. The study found that SMEs credit and repayment schemes in these countries need to be gradually improved. Through proper utilization of SMEs, these countries can alleviate poverty and attain economic progress. Unfortunately, the informal sector of these countries is playing a large role. It should be transformed to formal sector by financial inclusion. This can be achieved by setting up SMEs in the formal sector .The creation of employment along with poverty reduction in the formal sector will enhance economic growth as well as fulfill the basic needs and create empowerment of people. Community banking is suggested to be introduced for accumulating micro-savings and allocating, distributing setting up SMEs in the formal sector through micro investment under the umbrella of community banking. Further, under the regional cooperation flagship of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) Bangladesh and Thailand may work in collaborative manner in the SMEs sector. The Philippines may join the regional body of BIMSTEC and collaborate with SMEs at the regional level. This may lead to achieve some goals of sustainable development goals (SDGs). SMEs can work more rigorously for lower income group people to improve their living standard. The further research on these three countries can consider primary sources of data to find out the way to implement community bank for transforming micro savings to micro investment for removing income inequality, disparity and attaining social justice.

Harm to the Resources of Traditional Nature Management and Its Economic Evaluation
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The Yamal region occupies the fifth part of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District. Therefore it is one of the territories where traditional natural resource management is mainly developing. Its key branches are reindeer herding and fisheries. The major problems in the development of industries are due to an active industrial and transport exploitation of the tundra zone; the situation in reindeer husbandry caused by pasture overgrazing because of uncontrolled increase in livestock; poaching fish. Two following anthropogenic factors have a negative impact on soil and vegetation in the Yamal region: reindeer herding as the main traditional form of natural resource management of Small Indigenous People of the North (SIPN) and the intensive industryrelated development of the territory (geological exploration, industry, transport, construction). Since grazing is practiced throughout the whole Yamal Peninsula, which is not occupied by industrial zones, it is the most widespread form of natural resource use and the leading factor of anthropogenic impact on Yamal’s natural territorial complexes. The primary reason for the decline in fish resources is the violation of the ecosystemic reproduction of fish resources due to their excessive catch. One of the main reasons of this is poaching. In turn, the annual increase of surplus catch is caused by the population growth, including SIPN, and the growing density of the road network providing the access to fishing grounds. The article offers the guidelines for economic damage assessment determined by the harm to the pasture resources. The authors justify the amount of compensation that repairs losses arising from their damage, which takes into account the decline in the productivity of land and the period of restoration of the economic and biological potential of pastures for the corresponding periods of years (compensation for economic damage). The economic damage assessment of the fish resources supposes taking into account the decline in their economic value. It involves the use of a refined population-biological approach while the detailed calculation. In addition, we give an example of the guidelines’ approbation.

Structural Change of Gross Regional Product in the Subjects of Ural Federal District
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The important factor of the stability of the national economy is the adaptive capability of regional economies to damping of external and internal factors of risk. It occurs thanks to the variety of the developed industry structures of the economy in regions as well as to the constant process of their transformation that finds reflection in the structure of the gross regional product (GRP). It is possible to consider three main strategies of the development of the structure of regional economy: 1 the reduction of the economies of regions to the balanced condition; 2 the emphasis on the individualization of the structure of regional economy; 3 the combined strategy, when regions with various structure of economy are integrated into macro-regions in which there is a compilation of structure. In the latter case, this can result in both the leveling of the GRP structure of the territorial subjects of the Russian Federation included in the region and its convergence to macro-region indicators, in general (for example, to the federal district’s indicators). For the confirmation of this hypothesis, the analysis of GRP of the subjects included in the Ural Federal District for the period of 2005–2014 is carried out. As a result, a number of conclusions are formulated. Thus, the measurements with the use of the Ryabtsev Index and Szalai Index have shown that the GRP structure of autonomous areas is most close to the GRP structure of the federal district. At the same time, during the analyzed period, there was a reducing in a share of mining operations along with the increase in a share of GRP types referred to the auxiliary and social component of economic activity. In the federal district, there is a slow movement to a more balanced participation of regions of the district in the generation of GRP total amount. When using the author’s index of the structure determined by the double calculation of the sum of squared deviations, the tendency towards the leveling of the GRP structure of the federal district, in general, is revealed. The results of the research can be applied when carrying out different types of the analysis of dynamics and structure of socio-economic indexes.

Economic and Ecological Evaluation of Land Use Change: Evidence from Karelia
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Land use change and a shift in economic activity often bring to unpredictable consequences for local ecosystems. There is a necessity of making preliminary evaluation and analysis of comparing the different types of economic and ecological transformation, including cost and benefit analysis, not only for business and local population, but for the whole environment. We give an example of a particular animal husbandry farm in Karelia and show how potential change in economic specialization can be effective on a 10 years horizon. Among other land use types, we chose peat mining and wetland conservation. Each type of activities was complexly evaluated with different types of costs and benefits. In the paper, we use a method of land use change evaluation including the value of ecosystem services. The monetary values of ecosystem services are given with the respect to foreign analogues and taking into account local realities and prices. Our results have shown that the most beneficial for the society and the environment is wetland conservation, due to their berries picking service, which are highly appreciated on the market, and due to low costs for the third parties, since wetlands contain regulative and refinery services for local ecosystems. As a contrary peat mining is a profitable business, but pollutes the environment because of carbon emissions into the atmosphere. The current specialization for animal husbandry is neither an optimal solution because of low profitability of the chosen farm. The results of the research can be used for optimization in regional politics in the sphere of agriculture and environment economics in order to protect the ecological balance between human activities and nature.

Inflation in Modern Russia: Theoretical Foundations, Specific Features of Manifestation and Regional Dimension
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The purpose of the article is to characterize the development and specific features of inflation in Russia on the basis of its theoretical justification and practical analysis. The article discusses the monetarist and Keynesian approaches to the characterization of inflation. The paper shows that the equation of exchange from the quantity theory of money, which is the basis of the monetarist theory of inflation, does not allow to make an unambiguous conclusion about the direct relationship between money supply and price level in the economy. The authors give the theoretical substantiation of cost-push inflation from the position of microeconomic theory, which is denied by the representatives of the monetarist school. We characterize the specific features of inflation in the period of market transformations in Russia. The article shows the considerable role of the cost factors of cost-push inflation: the monopolization of the economy, rise in the prices of energy and raw materials. There is an absence of the direct relationship between inflation and money supply growth in large part of the period of the 2000. The authors determine the dependence between the exchange rate and inflation in the Russian economy, which is most evident during periods of significant devaluation of the national currency, as a rule, associated with a significant increase in world oil prices. The paper notes that the significant decline in aggregate demand that occurred in Russia in recent years have reduced the level of inflation in 2016. Despite this, the reduction of inflation and its transformation to slow cost-push inflation was combined with negative consequences for the economy: the decrease of investments and production development, reduction of the living standards of the population. The authors conducted the analysis of inflation on the level of the subjects of the Russian Federation, which has confirmed the significant role of causes of cost-push inflation in the economy. The research has led to the conclusion about the appropriateness of measures on the stimulation of aggregate demand and the development of the national economy by reducing interest rates, increasing investment activity, developing competition and efficiency of antitrust regulation.
Industry-specific and inter-industry-specific complexes

Network Interaction of Universities in Higher Education System of Ural Macro-Region
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The subject-matter of the analysis are the characteristics and forms of cooperation between universities of Ural Federal District on the basis of their typology. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the necessity and possibility of network interaction between universities of the macro-region. We prove the importance and potential effectiveness of universities network interaction in the terms of socio-economic uncertainty of the development of Ural Federal District and its higher education. Networking interaction and multilateral cooperation are considered as a new type of inter-universities relations, which can be activated and intensified by strengthening the relations of universities with stakeholders. The authors examine certain concrete forms and formats of network interaction and cooperation between universities and discuss selected cases of new type of relations. In it, they see the real and potential innovation of higher school nonlinear development processes. The statements of the article allow to confirm the hypothesis about the reality of strengthening the network interaction in macro-region. It can transform higher education in the driver of socio-economic development of Ural Federal District; ensure the competitiveness of higher education of the macro-region in the Russian and global educational space; enhance its role in the society; become one of the most significant elements of nonlinear models of higher education development in the country. The authors’ research is based on the interdisciplinary methodology including the potential of theoretical sociology, sociology of higher education, economic sociology, management theory, regional economics. The results of the study can form the basis for the improvement of the Ural Federal District’s educational policy.

MANAGING REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LOCAL CONTENT REQUIREMENTS IN OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY
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This paper explores the regional economic impact of mineral resource endowment and offers specific inputs to the debate on the local content requirement (LCR) policy, gaining urgency in modern economic and political environment. The paper considers the intricacies related to greenfield investment projects in Russian oil and gas industry. Focusing on the experience of the Krasnoyarsk region, the paper examines the way national companies operate in the newly developing oil and gas provinces of Russia. The analysis of key economic indices shows that the existing approach does not allow having significant benefits from resource endowment in the region. The main idea is that the establishment of completely new industry has to affect regional economic development, budget revenues dynamics and employment to influence the related industries and services in the region. The conducted analysis let to form possible scenarios and evaluate the dynamics of regional economic development depending on the scale of LCR policy. The developed approach based on statistical modeling allows assessing both direct and indirect effects of LCR policy. The obtained results allow to conclude that the implementation of LCR policy leads to the growth of real income per capita and the job creation in the region. The development of equipment and services suppliers for oil and gas industry by ripple effects can boost socio-economic development and diversify regional economy. The paper also dwells on some pitfalls and risks accompanying LCR policy and considers crucial points of introducing this kind of policy for local and federal government.

The Impact of Economic Parameter Uncertainty Growth on Regional Energy Demand Assessment
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The article deals with the forecasting studies based on the energy demand and prices in the region in terms of the complex interconnections between economy (and energy) and the growth of uncertainty of the future development of the country and territories. The authors propose a methodological approach, which combines the assessment of the price elasticity of energy demand with the optimization of energy and fuel regional supply. In this case, the price elasticity of demand is determined taking into account the comparison of cost-effectiveness of using different types of fuel and energy by different consumers. The originality of the proposed approach consists in simulating the behaviour of suppliers’ (energy companies) and large customers’ (power plants, boiler rooms, industry, transport, population) depending on energy price changes, the existing and new technologies, energy-saving activities and restrictions on fuel supplies. To take into account the uncertainty of future economic and energy conditions, some parameters such as prospective technical and economic parameters, price, technological parameters are set as the intervals of possible values with different probability levels. This approach allows making multivariate studies with different combinations of the expected conditions and receiving as a result the range of the projected values of studied indicators. The multivariate calculations show that the fuel demand has a nonlinear dependence on the consumer characteristics, pricing, projection horizon, and the nature of the future conditions uncertainty. The authors have shown that this effect can be significant and should be considered in the forecasts of the development of fuel and energy sector. The methodological approach and quantitative evaluation can be used to improve the economic and energy development strategies of the country and regions.

ENTREPRENEURIAL CAPACITY OF UNIVERSITIES AND ITS IMPACT ON REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH
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The scope of our research is the university as the key actor of economic change. Historically, it is possible to allocate four types of the university by analogy to four industrial revolutions. In the conditions of the fourth industrial revolution, there is a radical shift in the university model. From research and development and technology transfer, the university moves to the creation of the intellectual capital. The university does not simply conduct R&D for business but creates essentially new industries. The university becomes the center around which the new hi-tech enterprises grow. This phenomenon has been entitled entrepreneurial university that is the main actor of the entrepreneurial (startup) economy. In this study, we examined the different approaches to the evaluation of universities, first of all, global university rankings. Each ranking methodology assesses the different functional areas; a unified methodology of the evaluation of university as a complex system is currently lacking. At the same time, we tried to define the mechanism of the impact of the universities on regional economic growth grounding on a case of Russian universities. A comparative study of Novosibirsk and Tomsk universities has revealed key problem areas and barriers in the process of university engagement in regional economic systems. The findings will be used in further theoretical and applied research, as well as decision-making in the area of educational policy.

Integrated Assessment of the Policy of Working Capital Management in Housing and Utilities Enterprises
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The article describes the approaches to the management of current assets in the enterprises of various industries in economic literature. We discuss theoretical, methodological and applied issues concerning the formation and improvement of the working capital management policy in utility companies, which require further study. The authors propose to assess the policy of working capital management in these enterprises by means of the integrated approach based on the system of reasoned indicators defining the type of working capital management policy. It includes indicators characterizing the policy of working capital management, management of the liquidity of working capital and the policy of financing sources management. The indicators which define the type of the policy of working capital management have been chosen as the most influential for each vector of the improvement of management policy. The range of values is set taking into account the current market conditions for the housing and utilities companies based on theoretical standard values adapted to modern situation. The paper proposes to use an integrated indicator for the evaluation of the policy of working capital management in housing and utilities enterprises. We have substantiated the technique of the integrated assessment of the policy of working capital management in housing and utilities companies. As an example of the application of this indicator, we defined the type of the policy of working capital management in Rostovvodokanal Company. The initial data for the calculation of integrated indicators are the official data on the structure of the balance and financial results of Rostovvodokanal Company during the period from 2012 to 2016. At the Rostovvodokanal Company, it is necessary to bring the type of the policy of working capital management and sources of its financing closer to moderate or conservative type. The authors have substantiated the optimal type of policy of working capital management and the direction for improving the assets management. The proposals, developed in the article are aimed at defining and applying an optimal policy of the working capital management in housing and utilities enterprises in modern conditions. They can be used by other enterprises, industries, government bodies in this sphere.

The Formation of Competitive Advantages for Corporate Structures Based on the Cluster Integration
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The article studies the cluster forms of integration as well as the development of corporate and cluster connections. At present, economic knowledge is rather focused on the development of integrated regional systems recognized as one of the most effective forms of integration. In turn, the processes, based on the interdependence and cooperation of economic entities located on the same territory, determine the possibility of stable economic relations, synergetic effect and growth of the competitive advantages of these territories. Such development tendencies reflect corporate interests and define trends for the integration of corporations in the context of regional and industrial limitations. Thus, one of the main aspects of integration is focused on the establishment of sustainable cost-beneficial relationships between corporate entities. The dialectical unity of the coordination and cooperation of corporate structures in economic clusters expands the traditional boundaries of economic benefits. Considering the government of corporate structure on the basis of internal approach, we can see that the benefits from the fragmented leadership may be neutralized due to unevenness of expenses. The corporate-cluster approach of corporate structure government allows not only to coordinate actions at the micro-level but also to generate more sustainable economic relations at the industrial, market and regional levels. It is reflected in the synergistic effect. The coordination of economic processes and geographic concentration contribute to system flexibility and adaptability in the market conditions as well as stimulate economic processes. Therefore, all cluster participants benefit from mutually beneficial cooperation. This, in turn, contributes to the decrease of total expenses and hastens the responses of entities on different market changes. The authors’ hypothesis assumes the coordination of interests in the economic cluster that allows to create grounds for economic growth and spread the tendency of sustainable development among all the parties of this interaction. This approach proves the feasibility of the formation of competitive advantages for corporate structures through cluster integration. The findings of this paper can serve as a methodological basis for the development and implementation of socio-economic programs in different regions. In the framework of current research, the algorithm of economic cluster formation was recommended for practical application to the Government of the Ulyanovsk region.
Socio-demographic potential of regional development

Methods of the Assessment of Economic Losses Caused by the Mortality of the Population Employed in Regional Economy
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The purpose of the study is to determine the most appropriate method to estimate the society losses from premature mortality. The authors compared the variants of the quantitative assessment of the economic losses caused by the mortality of the workingage population. The hypothesis of the research is the assumption that the researchers face the problem of choosing indicators for the analysis of various social and demographic groups of population, external factors and aims of calculation that can result in radically different results. On the grounds of domestic and foreign publications, the authors have analyzed preferable methodological tools to assess the economic losses and have defined the crucial factors affecting the estimated parameters. Using the example of the Sverdlovsk region and Ekaterinburg, we have evaluated the dynamics of the level and structure of working-age population mortality and estimated the economic losses from the mortality of working-age population for 2015 and 2016. The research uses two different methods to calculate the economic losses from the premature mortality of the working-age population. It has allowed to receive different evaluations of working people losses and to discuss the modification of socio-economic damage from the premature mortality taking into account regional characteristics. Thereby, we have defined gender and territorial differences of economic losses. Thus, the methodological tools allow estimating the economic losses of society caused by the premature mortality of working population both on the regional and municipal levels depending on the research purpose. The obtained results may be used to develop preventive measures for reducing mortality of the working population, increasing life expectancy and formulating the regional social policy.

Analysis of Differences in the Motivation of the Owner-Managers and Hired Managers of Regional Enterprises
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The article deals with the differences in the motivation of owner-managers and hired managers. The purpose of the article is to identify the signs of the differences and similarities in the motivation of hired managers and owner-managers on the basis of the analysis of the results of the study of these issues by other authors, as well as with the help of our research. The hypothesis of the study consists in the assumption that the motivational profile of owner-managers differs from the motivational profile of hired managers in greater riskiness and thrift. The research methodology involves conducting a sociological survey of 100 managers of small and medium-sized enterprises in Kemerovo, half of which are employed and the other half are business owners. Questioning was carried out by several methods: oral, by e-mail, in writing through the Center for Business Support and through other means. The data we processed in the SPSS Statistic program. The results of the study unexpectedly have rejected a basic hypothesis: the average data for the degree of risk and thrift of hired managers is highly competitive with the received indices of owner-managers. There is the only difference in the distribution of characteristics. The level of riskiness and thrift of the hired managers tends to the be average among them and has a slight variation in the estimates, while the owner-managers much differ from each other on these parameters, have a large variation in the values of indicators, show a lot of the diametrically opposed estimates. The study of the motives of of owner-managers activity allows to the authorities to develop recommendations on the improvement of the existing and new programmes for the support of small and medium-sized business; on the formation of executive candidate pool. It also can contribute to revealing the categories of population with expressed entrepreneurial and managerial motivational profiles at a stage of professional education for their fastest involvement in effective work.

COMPARATIVE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC STUDY OF YOUTH PRO-NATALIST POLICY IN THE REGIONS OF GERMANY, FRANCE AND RUSSIA
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This article analyzes the results of three empirical studies conducted in Russia, Germany and France, which reveal value orientations of contemporary young people of these countries, the nature of their social behavior in the demographic context, as well as economic factors influencing it. The objectives of the study are the need to identify and systematize the factors that influence the reproductive behavior of today’s youth from typical regions of these countries, as well as the evaluation of the experience of the organization and implementation of the pro-natalist policy accumulated by these three states. In the process of the questionnaire survey of young people in three countries, we formed an information database for the comparative analysis of young respondents’ views on the issues of identifying their behaviour and value orientations in family life. We also use materials of the state statistics of these countries and the secondary analysis of the materials of sociological studies. On the basis of the conducted research and experience of implementation of pro-natalist policy in Germany and France, we have developed a number of measures of the Russian youth pro-natalist policy. The development of the labor market has a strong influence on the formation of the family value system of today’s youth in Germany, France and Russia. It specifies the need to achieve a balance between creating a family, birth of children and the desire to create oneself as a professional. The possibility of achieving such life harmony must be ensured and supported by government measures in the framework of the effective pro-natalist policy.
External economic activity

RISK MANAGEMENT IN CUSTOMS CONTROL
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Customs administrations operating in the modern global economy are faced with a complex range of challenges. The prime responsibilities remain the collection of revenues and the protection of the society, but these demanding tasks must be performed effectively and efficiently, whilst at the same time facilitating the flow of legitimate goods. Risk management is a logical and systematic method of identifying, analyzing and managing risks. Risk management can be associated with any activity, function or process within the organization and will enable the organization to take advantage of opportunities and minimize potential losses. Minimization of the human factor in customs control through the implementation of non-intrusive inspection equipment can be very useful. The particularities of risk-management system (RMS) implementation within customs control are discussed in the article. The authors single out the elements of the risk-management system, evaluate the effectiveness of risk-management in customs control. The main reasons for non-implementation of the risk-management system in customs control are described as well. The particular attention is paid to the benefits of customs risk management. The authors’ hypothesis is that risk management in customs control must find a balance between costs and benefits to address all risks equally. Criteria are needed to decide what constitutes an acceptable or unacceptable risk. Thus, system analysis and risk management system are the effective mechanisms for acceleration of customs clearance and improve the quality of customs control. As a conclusion, the authors give recommendations for the improvement of the effectiveness of risk management system in customs control.

The Assessment of the Dynamics of Region’s Participation in Interregional and International Exchange Processes Based on the Change in the Ratio of Intermediate and Final Products
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The article presents the hypothesis that the increase in the intermediate consumption caused by the growth of material costs due to innovation and modernization temporarily reduces the level of economic efficiency. This leads to further multiple increases of final product volume, which, in turn, increases the region’s economic potential and competitiveness, provides its enhanced participation in inter-regional and international exchange processes. The authors consider the main factors and conditions that determine the variation of these parameters in the market economy and discuss the intermediate and final product, export, import and others. The results of the analysis, calculations and statistics reveal and confirm the possibility of their measurement with the use of interindustry balances. The study aims at assessing the quantitative interdependence of intermediate and final products growth based on the analysis of interregional and international exchange in the system coordination to macroeconomic indicators of the socio-economic development of the region during the periods of planned and market economy. Another purpose is to determine the directions of the region’s participation in the division of labour and implementation of innovations in order to increase of gross domestic product. On the example of the development of Bashkortostan economy, the authors have revealed that a greater involvement of the region in the foreign economic processes led to the increase in the flow of exports and imports and the simultaneous reduction of production export to other regions of the Russian Federation and import from them. At the same time, the region has focused mainly on the export of fuel and energy products. The proportions of intermediate and final products in the period under review have changed by increasing the final products. That confirms the improvement of conditions for the growth of the region’s competitiveness. On the example of oil-extracting and oil processing industries, the authors have proved that the modernization and introduction of innovative approaches to the organization of production are an effective tool for multiple increases of the final product volume, despite the increase in intermediate products.

TRANSFORMATIONS IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE GULF GROUP STATES
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The article is devoted to the national economy transformations of the GCC States (Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf countries). This paper analyzes the dynamics of socio-economic development of the Gulf Group countries for the last 10 years, compares and systematizes the traditional and unique statistical data in order to prove the hypothesis that the positive dynamics was not only due to the high hydrocarbon prices on the global market but also to the successful structural transformation. The growth of the regional economy in the conditions of an almost threefold drop in world oil prices over the past three years is shown. We use systemic approach, comparative and statistical analysis. As the analysis of economic situation and development in the GCC countries at the current stage shows, all of them need to change the structure of the national economy and diversify it in order to reduce the dependence from mining industries, world prices fluctuations. This paper proposes a number of practical considerations and appropriate measures for the formation of more rational structure of the national economies, including the diversification of the sources of budget revenues through expanding industrialization; accelerating development of solid minerals and the creation of new industries using them. As Gulf States belong to the group of emerging countries and the structure of their national economies is similar with the Russian economy, the factors of the positive changes of the national economies will be useful for Russian and foreign researchers.
Agrictural and food market: new vector of development

Methodology for Assessing the Quality of Agribusiness Activity Based on the Environmentally Responsible Approach
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The article is devoted to the research and development of quality evaluation methods of agro-industrial enterprises activity in the regional economy with the use of the ecological approach. The hypothesis of the study is that the activity of the economic entities (as well as of agribusiness) must be assessed not only in the context of economic efficiency and effectiveness, but also in the context of environmental ethics and environmental aggression. As the initial data, we have used the indicators of economic statistics of Russian agrarian-oriented regions, as well as the data received from management reporting on the sample of enterprises of three regions (the Belgorod and Moscow regions, Krasnodar Territory). The article offers the economic and mathematical approach for measuring the level of the environmental responsibility of agro-industrial enterprises on the basic formula of the Mandelbrot set and statistical indicator of Hurst. Our scientific contribution is the development of a modified methodology for assessing the quality of the activity of agro-industrial enterprises using the parameter characterizing the level of environmental ethics and environmental aggression of these entities. The main result of the study is the approbation of the method, which has shown its practical applicability and relative coherence with certain indicators of regional ecological statistics. The proposed method is characterized by the integration of the different mathematical approaches and as an adaptive assessment tool that can be used to assess the quality of the activity of both agro-industrial enterprises and enterprises of other industries and fields of the economy. In the further works, the authors plan to develop methodological approaches to the assessment of the quality of agro-industrial products. At the same time, the main attention will be paid to the ecological and social component of the quality

Design Model for the Development of Agrarian Economy: Food Aspect
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Based on the assessment of the agrarian economy development and generalization of the main directions of scientific thought, the article shows that in the last decade, the activation of agrarian policy has promoted positive shifts only in the certain directions. These shifts are not connected with a decrease in import dependence in the main food commodities. This has resulted in a low level of food self-sufficiency, seed and breeding raw materials for food production. On the example of Penza region, the authors reveal the main reasons of the low effectiveness of state measures, note their redistribution in favour of the large-scale enterprises, which cannot alone solve the import substitution problem. Using econometric methods and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) method, we have proved that the current state support mechanism is not connected with the extension of the food programme, and the subsidizing does not stimulate producers to increase the output of production. The method of statistical distribution allowed us to conclude that the problem consists in the current format of state regulation, which is implemented through financial instruments of monetary and credit institutes. Moreover, due to the low parameters of solvency and a lack of mortgage base of the most of the enterprises, it obviously deprives them of borrowed funds and budgetary provisions. On this basis, the authors draw the conclusion that a considerable part of agrarian resources in the region is not involved in the solution of food problems. We emphasize that the project management of agrarian production can become the main driver , allowing to the majority of producers to get the access to the attracted and budgetary resources. Moreover, as the received empirical model shows, the effectiveness of the operating support measures increases. The research on the basis of the theory of marginal efficiency of expenses has shown the considerable opportunities of increase in relative to a rouble of additional investments in the organizations with low financial performance providing corresponding conditions. The results of the research will be used for the development of the offers for the modernization of methods and models in strategic planning and forecasting of the development of agroindustry.
Modern tools of analysis and management of economic processes

Diagnostics of Expectations of Economic Agents as an Instrument for the Modelling of Economic Cycles
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The emerging trends of the development of are based on rapid institutional transformations and corresponding progressive forms of value added creation. Therefore, the analysis of these trends demand advanced and evidence-based approaches. Earlier, the processes of economic industrialization, implementation of large-scale solutions, high localization of economic processes were the priority directions for the development. Nowadays, the major proprieties are such strategic focus for the development as the formation and large-scale replication of the local low-concentrated growth points, diversification of business activity, and distribution of technological, institutional, product developments; development of the social parameters of economic growth including those based on the principles of environmental friendliness of business activities, etc. The complexity and multidimensionality of the processes of socio-economic development create a basis for the improvement of the traditional theoretical approaches to modeling and forecasting of economic growth and, respectively, of the cyclic development of the economy. The strengthening of globalization processes as well as the regionalization of the economy, formation of the complex and mobile dynamic structures generating the crisis phenomena make relevant the problem of the modern regulation of the cyclic development of the economy. Its solution is impossible with classical methods of the cyclist theory. The traditional approaches for the modeling of the cyclic development of the economy can lead to a decline in the quality of the predictive models constructed on the basis of extrapolation methods with the application of the scenario forecasts of market and institutional factors which are the drivers of the phase changes of a cycle. The above-mentioned means that the current development of the considered predictive models supposes a number of risks connected with the accuracy of prediction and anticipation of cyclic fluctuations. Therefore, there is a need of the scientific justification (verification) and approbation of the models of the cyclical fluctuations constructed on the basis of the factors, which would have both the high level of sensitivity to the changes in external and internal environment of the economic system, and the high level of the predictability of cyclic trends. The authors have theoretically substantiated and approved the model of cyclical fluctuations of the economy. It is based ojn the integrated cross-correlation indicator characterizing the expectations of economic agents.
Finances of region

HETEROGENEOUS BANK LENDING RESPONSES TO MONETARY POLICY: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM RUSSIA
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The monetary policy affects the regional economy through interest rates and its main parameter the Bank of Russia key rate. But do all the banks in the regions respond uniformly to monetary policy changes? The effects of monetary policy actions can vary across the regions within an economic entity, depending on the regional industrial output, the financial structure, household incomes, lending activity, etc. The analysis of the article aims to determine the monetary policy instruments that influence the development or degradation of the regional banking sector in Russia. This helps to identify the heterogeneous commercial bank responses to changes in conducted monetary policy. In order to assess the effects of macroeconomic shocks and instruments of banking supervision on lending activity, the Ordinary Least Squares estimator and Generalized Least Squares technique were applied. The Taylor rule was used to calculate the desired level of interest rate for the each region and, then, to compare the results with the Central Bank interest rate. The empirical results, described in the context of the regional analysis, demonstrate that Central Bank’s interest rate does not affect the lending activity in most of the regions. Finally, the author summarizes conclusions one can draw from the results and provides recommendations for economic policy makers, based on the results of empirical analysis.

Financial and Organizational Aspects of the Recovery of Hydrocarbon Resource Base in the Regional Context
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The characteristics of hydrocarbon resource base qualitative and quantitative degrade are reflected in the increase of the share of small and medium−sized deposits, as well as hard−to−recover reserves. This makes the need to update the approaches to the implementation of the geological prospecting programmes. The geological exploration performance differs in oil−producing regions of the Russian Federation due to a number of various factors. The subject matter of the study is the assessment of the strength of these factors in various working, geological, infrastructure and economic conditions to determine the effectiveness of the existing economic model of the recovery of hydrocarbon resource base, as well as to develop the author’s suggestions. The hypothesis of the study proposes to change the economic, as well as financial and tax mechanisms of government regulation of the geological exploration, carried out by small oil producing companies on license areas with one or several fields in order to stimulate the development of hydrocarbon resource base. The method of the study is the correlation analysis of the impact of various factors on geological exploration on mineral resource base recovery. It is carried out utilizing K. Mohn model and the statistical data of three subjects of the Russian Federation (the Republic of Tatarstan, Khanty−Mansiysk Autonomous District and Tomsk region). The results of the study can be applied in the tax and financial legislation, as well as in the management of oil and gas industry in the field of geological exploration. On the basis of the conducted analysis and international experience, the author suggests to introduce reasonable tax incentives and the mechanism of public private partnership in the realization of geological prospecting programmes with the aim to support small oil producing companies at the initial stage of the development of a field.
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