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Journal "Ekonomika regiona"

New research related to regional economy

The Future of the World Economy is an Integrated World Economic Structure
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Global changes in the modern world cannot be adequately described on the basis of neoliberal thinking and require a new approach. It can be formed on the basis of the cyclical-wave characterization of the development of mankind. The hypothesis about the wave-like development of the world economy with a certain cyclicity lies at the heart of thisresearch. The authors determined the economic basis of the formation, development and change of these waves (technological ways and technical revolutions). These changes reflect in the cyclical fluctuations of the world economy.The mechanism of these fluctuations is described by the theory of “large cycles of the economic conjuncture” by N. Kondratiev. The authors propose a methodology and methodological tools for analyzing and forecasting cyclic-wave processes in the economic development. The study has concluded that it is the regularities of K-cycles that allow one to correctly assess the ongoing processes in the world economy, to forecast possible variants of their development. The authors came to the conclusion that the development of the world economic structure is necessarily accompanied by a cyclical shift in the instruments of capital accumulation (material and financial expansion). These processes are reflected in the periodic replacement of scientific paradigms of economic development and management. The state always takes an active part in the phase of the dominance of productive capital, and the ideological paradigm is of a directing nature. While in the phase of domination of financial capital the liberal paradigm becomes dominant. We have substantiated the thesis about the transition from the American to the Asian systemic cycle of capital accumulation, which would inevitably lead in the middle of the 21st century to the shift of the center of the world economy from the West to the East. The paper concludes that the world is facing a change from the Monopolistic world economic structure to the Integrated world economic structure. The authors formulated the main contradiction of our present day — the confrontation of the dying Industrial Civilization in the face of the cumulative West and the emerging Information Society. The authors analyzed the main tendencies, problems and possible alternatives to the development of the world economy. It can ensure the development and adoption of political decisions for the most painless transition of Russia to the emerging forms and institutions of the global economy.

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For the economic description of the social driving forces in modern society at the regional level, the author offers his concept of econotronics. It is considered as a section of social sciences, which is focused on the dynamics of the development of economic institutions of interaction between actors and society in the digital economy. The initial data used for the research are the investigations of foreign scientists and the author’s findings. The subject matter of the research is the forces driving the development of the public sector of the economy. The purpose of this study is to develop the principles and ideas of institutional modeling of the processes of public goods production in the framework of the author’s conception of econotronics. It is shown that the successful development of modern public goods is determined by network interactions between economic agents of the public sector. Institutional simulation of the production of local public goods should be based on the matrix of the current state in the coordinates of the «dynamics of the number of consumers — the dynamics of financing.» The rapid development of modern social projects depends on the application of advanced economic tools such as social innovation, crowdfunding, fundraising, etc. The development of social entrepreneurship is provided by formal and informal economic institutions adopted in the society. Creation of social innovations begins with the idea of potential innovators of how to solve a social problem, then moves to the development of a socially innovative project and concludes by the approbation of the project by the society. The establishment of the institutional atlas determines the role and place of social innovation projects in addressing market failures in social services. Economic efficiency of the implementation of a social project depends on the implementation of the commercial and public benefits. This efficiency can be determined within the matrix of the performance evaluation of social innovations. The obtained results give the opportunity for a comprehensive institutional modeling of the public sector in modern conditions to predict the further development of its driving forces.

The Growth Points of Regional Economy and Regression Estimation for Branch Investment Multipliers
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The article develops the methodology of using investment multipliers to identify growth points for a regional economy. The paper discusses various options for the assessment of multiplicative effects caused by investments in certain sectors of the economy. All calculations are carried out on the example of economy of the Republic of Tatarstan for the period 2005–2015. The instrument of regression modeling using the method of least squares, permits to estimate sectoral and cross-sectoral investment multipliers in the economy of the Republic of Tatarstan. Moreover, this method allows to assess the elasticity of gross output of regional economy and its individual sectors depending on investment in various sectors of the economy. Calculations results allowed to identify three growth points of the economy of the Republic of Tatarstan. They are mining industry, manufacturing industry and construction. The success of a particular industry or sub-industry in a country or a region should be measured not only by its share in macro-system’s gross output or value added, but also by the multiplicative effect that investments in the industry have on the development of other industries, on employment and on general national or regional product. In recent years, the growth of the Russian was close to zero. Thus, it is crucial to understand the structural consequences of the increasing investments in various sectors of the Russian economy. In this regard, the problems solved in the article are relevant for a number of countries and regions with a similar economic situation. The obtained results can be applied for similar estimations of investment multipliers as well as multipliers of government spending, and other components of aggregate demand in various countries and regions to identify growth points. Investments in these growth points will induce the greatest and the most evident increment of the outcome from the macro-system’s economic activities.

Management of the Structural Transformation of Regional Economy
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The article presents the research of the structural transformation of the economy. The authors have formulated the theoretical concept and the basic reasons for structural transformation of the economy in regions. According to the authors’ approach, the economy should function as a whole system. This defining principle is aimed at the systemic effect. The loss of regions’ control, and, in some cases, deviation from the national goals are the main reasons for the reduction in the Russian economic efficiency. As a result of the liberalization of the economy, the principle of selective investments has become the dominant one as a result of the liberalization of the economy. It broke the synergetic principle used for the formulation of economic strategy. The authors recommend to structure an efficient economy on the basis of the specificity of the economic situation due to its internal state and international realities. We also advise to achieve the balance between regional development and the development of country’s economic competitiveness. The article substantiates the need to overcome the growth of negative trends. These trends are due to the deformation of the most important economic principles and relationships as a result of weakness in the structural and investment policy. Thus, the high-priority task is the orientation of economic development to ensure the technical and technological independence of the economic system. This strategy contains the determining directions for the next development stages. We propose to focus the modernization of the structure of regional economy on the combination of the conceptual foundations of the federal structural policy and regional conditions for its implementation. Regional economy should balance economic initiative and independence in terms of the methods and means for its implementation. We recommend to combine the economic growth with the regional environmental management and the regulation of the natural environment. The authors propose a mathematical model for the management and evaluation of structural shift in economic systems as well as the regional evaluation model of structural shift. We also offer an optimization approach in management improving the economic structure to ensure an effective balance of its components.
Socio-economic problems of region

Methodological Tools to Assess the Population Welfare: Interregional Comparison
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The article considers the current problem of the assessment of the level of human wellbeing in the Russian regions. The research identifies the features of application of traditional tools to the assessment of welfare in the conditions of spatial heterogeneity. However, modernizing these tools allows to show the real quality of life in the regions. On the example of the multidimensional index of welfare, we test the hypothesis that the position of a region in spatial selection can vary depending on various combinations of indicators as a part of the integrated indicator. At the first stage, the authors calculate the multidimensional index of welfare in the subjects of the Russian Federation for three various sets of indicators. At the second stage, we estimate the dependences of indexes on their indicators. It allows defining the potential conditions for upgrading the position of each subject of the Far East in terms of welfare among other Russian regions. At the third stage, we assess the influence of initial indicators on the integrated index of population welfare on the basis of an hierarchy analysis method of T. Saati. This method allowed estimating local priorities for each Far East region. The received estimates have allowed to select the most significant indicators (job, income, and housing. Furthermore, we have offered a three-factorial integrated indicator of the population welfare reflecting the evaluation of individual prosperity. The interregional comparisons have shown that the northern regions of the Far East remain leaders in terms of the most significant factors of basic welfare, but not in terms of comfort. The regions of the southern zone of the Far East with more favourable conditions for life remain outsiders in terms of the prosperity level, but have a considerable potential for enterprise activity. Khabarovsk Krai holds the most advantageous position according to the integrated index of welfare. This region combines the functions of the capital and transport and logistic functions. The received conclusions adequately reflect a real situation and can be useful for the assessment of efficiency. The research results can be applied to define the priority directions of the development of the Far East regions.

Organizational Project Management in Omsk Region Companies: Current State and Development Constraints
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Despite widespread concept of project management, companies in major regions of Russia are still at the initial level of project management maturity. The paper is aimed to determine the current state and dynamics of organizational project management in the companies of the Omsk region, identify problem areas, and seek directions for further development. The author interviewed managers and project management practitioners in 148 companies from a variety of industries in the Omsk region. The study compares the survey results received during two years (2015–2016). The findings indicate that within the majority of companies, the organizational project management is not fully adopted. The author has empirically tested that high-performers are more likely to appreciate the value of project management than low-performers. However, the only small proportion of companies demonstrates a high level of project management maturity. Moreover, no strong relationship has been found between matured project management processes in a company and its performance. The author revealed and ranged the main problems in the organizational project management development. These problems are concerned with a poor support of organizational enablers. The organizational project management development should be considered in the context of strategic governance and management. The findings contribute to the understanding of key processes, which constitute project capabilities in a company. The research results can be used for building a conceptual model and studying organizational project management dynamics in a region during a longer period.

Assessment of the Competitive Environment in the Regional Markets
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The maturity of competitiveness and its dynamics is a focus of assessing state decisions aimed for economic growth. To estimate the maturity of the competitive environment, researchers apply different methods. However, synthesis of the existing approaches has revealed the comparability of various approaches to the assessment of the maturity of the competitive environment. The authors have proposed a methodology of comprehensive assessment, which includes the estimation of market concentration, diverging trends of revenue and costs, survey of entrepreneurs. The comparison of the estimations employs a three-stage model of data processing. This model consequently compares the characteristics of markets maturity obtained while implementing the above-mentioned approaches. We have tested the methodology using the materials of the research performed in 2015–2017 on the territory of Sverdlovsk Region. Our study has shown the following essential results. Firstly, we have classified socially important and priority markets of Sverdlovsk Region by the level of competitiveness development. Most of the markets are estimated as the markets with missing and low competition. The majority of them represent the segments of the education market. The authors also grouped highly competitive markets, which include the retail market, the market of overland carriage of passengers, the market of communication services and the market of cultural services. Moreover, we specified the group of markets with a moderate competition. This group consists of the market of housing and communal services, social services market, and the market of medical products. Secondly, we confirmed that the assessment of a competitive situation using one of the approaches is imprecise. Both in 2015 and in 2016, there is no convergence in estimates received by statistical and survey methods for the market of social services and certain segments of the education market. The authors explain it by a considerable share of the “grey” sector in these markets, which cannot be fully analyzed. Hence, we recommend to use survey methods to analyze competition in the markets of education and social services as these methods allow considering insider information and the illegal tendencies of their development. The results of the research may contribute the analysis of competition as well as the development of antimonopoly policy at the federal and regional levels.
Socio-demographic potential of regional development

Threats to the Human Capacity of Regional Higher Education Institutions
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In recent years, the sphere of science and education in Russia undergoes significant reforms. However, the existing framework guiding the development of the higher education contradict the Strategy of Scientific and Technological Development of Russia. These contradictions concern the conditions for building an integral system of personnel reserve and recruitment, which is necessary for the scientific and technological development of the country. The change of the funding model and the transition to two-tier higher education contribute to the outflow of talented youth to the cities where branded universities are concentrated. It creates threats to the human capacity of regional higher education institutions (both regarding staffing number, and regarding personnel reserve). Decreasing trend in number of students because of the federal budget appropriation and the existing system of per capita funding for regional higher education institutions are the threats for regional higher education. These threats can result in permanent reduction of the number of academic teaching staff and in potential decline in quality of education due to increasing teachers’ workloads. The transition to the two-tier model of university education has changed the approach to evaluating the efficiency of scientific research. The number of publications in the journals, which are indexed in the Web of Science and Scopus, has increased, but the patent activity of the leading higher education institutions has decreased many times. The ratio of number of articles to the number of the granted patents in the leading Russian universities significantly exceeds a similar indicator of the leading foreign universities. It can be regarded as «brain drain». Furthermore, this fact explains why the specific weight of income from the results of intellectual activity in total income in the majority of the Russian universities is close to zero. Regional higher education institutions need a strategy of innovative development. This strategy assumes the change in the system of financing of higher education and the evaluation of the efficiency of scientific activity to stimulate the creation of disruptive social and technological innovations. Further research can be devoted to the identification of the agents of influence on education and science and the development of a methodology for the assessment of damage from their activity.

Sociocultural Factors of Survival of Males and Females in Economically Active Age: a Regional Analysis
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The period, when a person starts and completes his or her professional carrier and labour participation, in general, coincides with the age when the self-preservation behaviour develops. It is a time when a person aims for a healthy and safe lifestyle. During this period, an individual assumes the main standards, values of the self-preservation behaviour inherent in an ethnic, social and cultural macro-environment. To research the sociocultural factors of survival, we applied econometric modelling to demographic processes using the discrete and probabilistic indicators of the mortality tables of male and female in economically active age. The econometric model included the elements of spatiotemporal characteristics of territories. These characteristics are interrelated with the indicators of survival probability and the indicator of average life expectancy in the regions of Russia. We choose the major sociocultural factors by the correlation ratio of indicators and their sensitivity. The econometric analysis has revealed a high degree of sensitivity of a territorial variation of demographic and sociocultural factors in the regions of Russia, including a gender aspect. The most significant socio-economic factors, which determine the self-preservation behaviour of males, are the following: 1) the size of Gross Regional Product per capita; 2) quality of health infrastructure; 3) fixed investments; 4) population with monetary income under the subsistence minimum (share coefficient of income differentials). The female have the same hierarchy of socio-economic factors, except for the sensitivity of variables to the regional differentiation of signs. The household poverty factor has little significance for the women and it is the main difference between male and female. The built model has shown the predictive importance in the assessment of the above-mentioned factors in short and medium-term prospects.

Stimulation of Managers in Regional Enterprises
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Most of the principles related to top managers work incentives were inherited from the planned economy that produces demotivation and opportunistic behaviour. Remuneration is a commercial secret and shall not be disclosed. The system of top managers’ stimulation is unbalanced and does not motivate them to achieve medium- and long-term goals of the company. The study pays great attention to the development of managers’ stimulation policies, the transparency of remuneration, correlation between pay and performance. We provide practical examples of foreign and national experience, showing the ability to ensure the transparency of remuneration of managers, and the relation between compensation and performance. These examples show that managers’ remuneration amount does not always correspond to the efficiency of enterprises and return on capital. To solve these problems, we offer to develop philosophy and policy for the stimulation of managers in enterprises. It will allow to find a balance between the interests of shareholders and managers. Furthermore, this philosophy will have a positive impact on the competitiveness of enterprises in a region. The policy of stimulating managers should include certain key areas. Firstly, it should ensure the competitiveness of managers’ remuneration. Secondly, it implies studying the motives of managers’ work and the integration of these motives in the development of incentive system for the managers. Thirdly, it should include an optimal combination of elements to stimulate labour: base salary, material and social remuneration, short and long-term remuneration, etc. And last, it should consider the indicators and norms of enterprise’s effectiveness as well as the assessment of working results of managers. The results of this research can be used for further study of the stimulation of managers’ work in Russian companies. They can also be used in practice for the analysis of labour incentives of managers and their impact on the development of enterprises.
Industry-specific and inter-industry-specific complexes

Mathematical Modelling of the Price Range in the Procurement of Ferrous Scrap by Metallurgical Enterprises
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For metallurgical enterprises, it is important to understand the limits of the most probable values of prices and geographical area for procurement of ferrous scrap in the regions. In order to define the maximal scrap prices in the regions, the authors have developed a mathematical model of “auction purchases”. This model equally assesses price competition between scrap consumers. When setting the price, we consider the territorial imbalances between scrap supply and demand in the regions; costs for scrap transportation from supplier to consumer; price level for scrap in the “windows for exports”. We calculate the lowest price according to the “export parity”. The results of the calculations allow evaluating a range of regional prices and interregional flows of scrap. This approach is unnown in the published works of Russian and foreign researchers. For calculations, we have developed a special software. The following initial data were used: data on railroad transportation of ferrous scrap in the Russian Federation provided by JSC Russian Railways; handbooks of railway tariffs 10–01 between railway stations of the Russian Federation; statistical data on prices of 3A metal scrap in the “windows for exports”. The article presents the formal structure of the model of “auction procurement”, the algorithm of its implementation and the results of calculations. The price level calculated according to the model of “auction procurement” can be used in management practice as potentially highest level of price, which can be reached in the conditions of competition between consumers of scrap in a situation when the negotiations are impossible. The proposed mathematical model allows a metallurgical enterprise to prove and implement a differentiated approach to the formation of regional prices of scrap, and to define regions for scrap purchasing.

The Integration of Timber Enterprises of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug — Yugra
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The article investigates the timber enterprises’ integration in Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug — Yugra as a way to improve the efficiency of the timber industry. Currently, in the region, only 10 of 130 timber enterprises are large and mediumsized enterprises. The other companies are small and chronically underfunded. These small enterprises use outdated equipment and production technology, are unable to organize wood processing and reforestation; to develop forest infrastructure. However, the integration of timber industry enterprises can become the way to address this situation. The article discusses various types of possible enterprises’ integration, such as vertical and horizontal integrations, the combined and unrelated diversification (financial integration). The combined diversification is a mixed type of the integration of enterprises from related and unrelated industries. This type of integration is most in keeping with the characteristics of the development of timber industry of Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug — Yugra. The combined diversification will maximize the effect from the association of enterprises. The author has justified the rationale for establishing six integrated industrial and financial associations (IIFA) according to improved forest and economical zoning of Okrug area. I defined the profile of each IIFA taking into account of special aspects of forest resources as well as social and economical development characteristics of the area and demand for the products. In Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug — Yugra, the integrated industrial and financial associations will address four critical challenges of the socio-economic development of the region. Firstly, these associations will contribute to the diversification of the economy. Secondly, they will enable the production of new types of forest products. Thirdly, the creation of the integrated industrial and financial associations will increase the efficiency in use of wood raw materials (including low-grade wood and wood waste). And last, it will enhance job creation and wage increases for the employees in the forest industry. The integration in the timber industry of Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug can be applied by other regions of Russia. However, technologies of integration have to be adapted to socio-economic and forest vegetation conditions of a certain region.

The Spatial Change of the Indicators of Consumer Market
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Improvement of the quality of life throughout the country is a current issue when performing the primary targets of the market. The research on the spatial organization of the consumer market are known worldwide. In Russia, the concept of the spatial organization of the regional consumer market as an economic system included in the region space has not become widespread yet. This paper presents an assessment of spatial differentiation and spatial autocorrelation in the development of the consumer market. We have analyzed retail turnover, price index for goods, per capita income in 82 regions of the Russian Federation for 2000–2016. To study of spatial differentiation and connectedness, we used statistical and econometrics methods (the oscillation rate, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, Moran index, LISA statistics, regression models, including a spatial lag model and spatial error model). The analysis has shown that the space of consumer market in the Russian Federation becomes more homogeneous. At the same time, there are regions with common and different trends in the development of regional markets. We identified the general trends in the indicators variations: retail turnover per capita, per capita income, price index. Under uncertainty, we could identify two groups of regions. The first group of regions is in the European part of Russia and have a higher growth of the price index. The second group of regions is the Asian part of the country and has more moderate growth. The construction of models with a spatial lag and spatial error has allowed confirming that the spatial aspect is important in the dynamics of retail turnover of the Russian Federation. Further research should investigate the dependencies of regions on interregional deliveries as well as find the ways to improve the spatial organization of the consumer market.

Performance Criteria of Spatial Development Projects Based on Interregional Integration
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The search of efficient ways for the development of regional socio-economic space is a relevant problem. The authors consider the models of spatial organization according to the Spatial Development Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2030. We conduct the comparative analysis of scenarios for the polarized and diversified spatial growth. Many investigations consider the concepts of polarized and endogenous growth. This study proposes a methodology to assess the development of macroregions and to increase the viability of interregional integration projects. To develop this methodology, we formulate scientific principles and indirect criteria of the project performance conforming to the theory of regional integration. In addition to the territorial community and complementarity of the development potentials, regional integration in the country should be based on the principles of security, networking, limited quantity and awareness of the potential project participants. Integration should ensure synergetic effects and take into account cultural and historical closeness, that manifests in the common mentality and existing economic relations among regions. The calculation results regarding the indirect criteria are obtained using the methods of classification and spatial correlation. This study confirms the hypothesis, that the formation of the Western Siberian and Ural macro-regions is appropriate. We have concluded this on the basis of the criteria of economic development, economic integration, the similarity of regional spaces as habitats, and a number of participants for the subjects of the Ural Federal District. The projection of the patterns of international economic integration to the interregional level allows predicting the highest probability for the successful cooperation among the Western Siberian regions with a high level of economic development. The authors’ method has revealed a high synchronization between the economies of Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk Regions. This synchronization increases the chances for successful integration into the Ural macro-region. The same criterion reveals the economic grounds for the productive cooperation between the Sverdlovsk Region and Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District. The application of the regional typology in terms of the mental characteristics provides fewer grounds for the optimistic forecasts in the social projects of interregional integration

Methods for the Evaluation of the Competitiveness of Energy Companies
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The strategic tasks of energy companies are impossible to achieve without reducing the risks of companies’ development because it is an element of increasing the companies’ competitiveness. The article is devoted to the evaluation of the competitiveness of Ural energy companies. For further deterministic evaluation, the author introduces the interpretation of competitiveness as the sum of development risks of an energy company. The article presents a comprehensive assessment of the competitiveness of an energy company on the basis of the proposed methodological approach. This approach includes the assessment and ranking of energy company’s risks, the comparative analysis of real and threshold values of the overall risk of investment project implemented by a company. I tested the method of scenario analysis. The main criterion of this method is the consumers demand on energy resources. I applied the theory of economic capital as an auxiliary instrument. Risks’ rating construction is one of the most significant results of the method’s approbation. On the basis of the calculated indicators of the overall risk, I have developed a map of competitiveness. This map allows assessing the twelve cases of company’s competitiveness depending on different development scenarios and types of economic capital. The practical value of this map lies in the possibility to conduct a comparative assessment of overall risk. Furthermore, I have calculated the monetary equivalent of overall risk in each of twelve competitiveness states. The comparative assessment along with the monetary equivalent of overall risk allow making reasonable administrative decisions on the development of the most effective programs of risk management. The obtained results have theoretical and practical importance and can be used firstly in the development of a methodology for assessing competition in the national and global energy markets. Secondly, these results can be useful for the development and improvement the effectiveness of risk management in energy companies. Further research can focus on developing a specific approach for the assessment of the actual economic capital of an energy company, specifying an indicator of economic losses in a case of default, etc.

Influence of Intermediaries on the Efficiency of Export of Small and Medium Business Production in Developing Countries
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Small and medium business plays an important role in the national economies of developing countries. From this perspective, to create an effective system for exports is of key importance for these countries. The article provides the basis for the implementation of intermediary export organizations and systems for their interaction with small and medium business entities. On the example of Armenia, the authors proved that the introduction of intermediary organizations to enhance the participation of small and medium business in export operations is expedient. These organizations may be implemented in other developing countries. We used methods of analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, comparative method, statistical analysis and others. The authors proposed three possible options for establishing intermediary export organizations in developing countries. Firstly, we considered the intermediary export organizations, established and managed directly by the state. Secondly, intermediary export organizations may be created by uniting of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) of a particular industry in association. And the final option is the commercial intermediary organizations for export. By applying a comparative cost analysis of direct and indirect exports, the authors have developed a method for assessing the effectiveness of interaction of intermediary export organizations with small and medium-sized businesses. We defined the following components of the total exports costs: the costs of warehousing, packaging, transportation, information collection, contracts, search for the shadow broker and interaction with him/her, marketing, export documentation, broker services, banking and insurance services, personnel costs, operation of the structure, tax and customs payments. We have analysed possible changes in these costs and defined the value of the cost changes total indicator that shows more effective indirect exports. . The study defines the possible risks faced by the exporter when entering the foreign market. These are the risk of interaction with unscrupulous buyers, the risk associated with the application of penalties and the inability to quickly ship the exported goods, and the long waiting times for loaded wagons. The research results can be applied to the implement or improve state policy in the sphere of small and medium enterprises, to develop medium- and long-term plans to optimize the activities of small and medium enterprises and their export strategy.
Agrictural and food market: new vector of development

Is Tajikistan a Potential Market for Genetically Modified Potatoes?
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Consumer perception and willingness to pay for genetically modified foods have been extensively studied in recent years. However, until so far there is little empirical evidence for genetically modified food acceptance among Central Asian consumers. This article contributes to existing literature in this field by exploring consumers’ acceptance and willingness to pay for genetically modified potatoes in Tajikistan. A dichotomous-choice contingent valuation methodology is used as a primary empirical tool. The data was collected in a major city of Tajikistan. The results indicate that more than half of survey participants are not aware of genetically modified potatoes. Yet, the majority of consumers expressed a positive or neutral opinion about this particular product and for two-third of respondents no risks are associated with genetically modified potatoes. These results highlight that Tajik consumers seem to be less risk-averse towards genetically modified food than consumers in Europe. This study explores consumer preferences for genetically modified potatoes in Tajikistan. A contingent valuation method is applied to measure consumers’ willingness to pay for this particular genetically modified product based upon socio-demographic variables as well as predictors related to individuals’ attitudes and perceptions. Findings of the paper show the relevance and possibility to introduce and market nonconventional potato in a Central Asian market of Tajikistan.
Economic security of region

Priority Development Areas in the Context of the Economic Security of Macro-Region
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In March 2017, after the adoption of the Russian Federation Economic Security Strategy until 2030, the need for strengthening the security of the subjects of the Russian Federation including macro-regions became relevant. In this aspect, the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation deserves special attention as it is a strategically important not only for economic, but also the national security of the country. Therefore, at the present stage of the state development, the substantiation of the special measures for the stimulation of the macro-region’s development to ensure its economic security is a relevant and priority task. The authors have analysed the intermediate results of some priority development areas since their creation in 2014. We have concluded that not enough time has passed to estimate whether this mechanism was effective or not in stimulating the regional growth and development of the business. Therefore, despite the traditional financial indicators of investment efficiency, we have included the estimation of quantitative change of one productive indicator depending on the change of a number of the parameters influencing this indicator in the assessment of the efficiency of priority development areas. We have estimated this quantitative change by means of the instruments of correlation and regression, and trend modelling. To apply this approach, we have designed a dependency model of the index of industrial production of Primorsky Krai as one of the indicators of the Economic Security Strategy on revealed factors, which cause the growth or decrease of this index. The economic interpretation of the model outputs consists in the following. When investments into fixed capital increase by 1 million rubbles, the index of industrial production in the region grows by 0,9 %. When the indicator of the real monetary income of the population increases by 1 thousand rubbles, the index of industrial production in the region decreases by 1,36 %. Trend forecasting has allowed to define such indicators as the investments into fixed capital and the real income of the population continue to change, the index of industrial production will show a steady downward trend for three next years. This proves that the policy of management of priority development areas in Primorsky Krai is inefficient. The research has concluded that from the perspective of ensuring the economic security of the macro-region, the creation of priority development areas in the Arctic will be effective only when all shortcomings of its functioning are eliminated. It is defined on the basis of the analysis of the corresponding experience of the Far East. High-quality forecasts will contribute to a positive impact from the creation of priority development area not only on the socio-economic sphere of the Arctic, but also on the strengthening the economic security of the macro-region in general. The results of the research can be used for the regional governance, monitoring of regional economic security, as well as for the increase in the scientific validity of state decisions.

International Scientific Migration: Progress or a Threat to Russia’s Scientific and Technological Security
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The authors focus on the issues of scientific migration. This trend is relevant from both an academic perspective — studying the individual’s economic behaviour, as well as practical one, because competition for talent has a significant impact on innovation policy initiatives around the world. Most Russian and foreign researchers are unanimous about the main complication for these studies: the lack of reliable information about scientific researchers’ migration. To search for these data, we have developed a methodology implemented in software based on the big data technology. This software allows to analyse data sets from leading scientific citation bases. The information on scientific migration resulted from the analysis of changes in affiliation. We have collected the data on the scientific migration of researchers employed by the Ural Federal University from the Scopus database. The verification of the obtained data showed their high reliability. Most researchers move to Western European countries and the United States (up to 72 %). The main areas of emigrating researchers’ scientific interests are natural and technical sciences. The optimal approach to minimizing the negative impact of scientific migration on Russia’s scientific and technological security is the practical application of the theory of brain sharing. According to this theory, a large scientific diaspora abroad is an essential resource for the development of science and innovation.

Assessment of the Impact of the Narcotics Market on the Regional Socio-Economic Development
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The article considers the market of narcotics as a part of the formal and informal economy. By narcotics, the author means psychoactive substances and plants containing them, which are banned, subject to control or non-prohibited, but have a psychophysical effect on human body. Drug-related psychoactive substances are classified according to the prohibition criterion and restrictions on a turnover with reference to the illegal (criminal) or shadow economy. The author considers the illegal drug market as a latent self-organizing system of socio-economic relations of criminal and shadow nature. Such market is oriented towards the turnover of potentially illegal or dangerous psychoactive substances, which are prohibited or restricted for use in non-medical purposes. The analysis of the state and development of the drug situation on the territory of the entities of the Ural Federal District confirms the relevance of the problem of drug abuse. In recent years, the primary incidence of drug addiction and harmful drug use among the adolescents aged 15–17 have grown. Synthetic narcotics and psychotropic substances of high narcogenicity dominate in the current drug market. Over the past 5 years, the average cost of a single dose of drug remains virtually unchanged. This reflects the conditional balance of purchasing power and competition in the drug market. The disparity in the volume of seized cannabis drugs and the number of cannabinoid users observed by medical institutions suggests a high level of latency in this category of drug users. To assess the degree of negative impact of the drug market, the author proposes to use a method of calculating the socioeconomic costs of the consequences of drug addiction. The methodology is supplemented with tools for determining the number of psychoactive substances consumers on the basis of the mass of these substances withdrawn from illicit trafficking, using the concentration and recalculation coefficients. The author develops a methodology for assessing the economic effect from medical and social rehabilitation of drug-dependant persons. This methodology allows to economically substantiate the development of the national rehabilitation system and determine the economic costs to be reduced from its implementation. As a result of approbation of the methodologies, the author has determined the limiting coefficient of latency of persons, consuming psychoactive substances for non-medical purposes. Furthermore, these methodologies have allowed to define the share of the persons, who successfully completed medical and social rehabilitation. The excess of this share demostrates the positive economic effect of rehabilitation programs. The proposed methods can be applied in economic calculations to justify the establishment and functioning of drug addiction medical and social rehabilitation centres in the subjects of the Federation and to assess their performance
Innovative capacity of a region

Optimization of Investment Planning Based on Game-Theoretic Approach
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The game-theoretic approach has a vast potential in solving economic problems. On the other hand, the theory of games itself can be enriched by the studies of real problems of decision-making. Hence, this study is aimed at developing and testing the game-theoretic technique to optimize the management of investment planning. This technique enables to forecast the results and manage the processes of investment planning. The proposed method of optimizing the management of investment planning allows to choose the best development strategy of an enterprise. This technique uses the “game with nature” model, and the Wald criterion, the maximum criterion and the Hurwitz criterion as criteria. The article presents a new algorithm for constructing the proposed econometric method to optimize investment project management. This algorithm combines the methods of matrix games. Furthermore, I show the implementation of this technique in a block diagram. The algorithm includes the formation of initial data, the elements of the payment matrix, as well as the definition of maximin, maximal, compromise and optimal management strategies. The methodology is tested on the example of the passenger transportation enterprise of the Sverdlovsk Railway in Ekaterinburg. The application of the proposed methodology and the corresponding algorithm allowed to obtain an optimal price strategy for transporting passengers for one direction of traffic. This price strategy contributes to an increase in the company’s income with minimal risk from the launch of this direction. The obtained results and conclusions show the effectiveness of using the developed methodology for optimizing the management of investment processes in the enterprise. The results of the research can be used as a basis for the development of an appropriate tool and applied by any economic entity in its investment activities

Assessment of Innovation Intensity: the Case of USA
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In the literature, some categories and terms related to technological progress and innovation activity are often considered as synonyms or differences between them are not completely clear. Therefore, the author attempts to distinguish these terms and to link them as well. The measurement and assessment of the innovation intensity is based on the ratio of investment efforts and consequent indicators productivity trends. The better this ratio is, the higher the innovation activity is. I propose two methods based on this approach. The first method supposes the measurement of the innovation intensity via the decomposition of the productivity gain into the factors that generate it. These factors are the dynamics of capital productivity and the capital-labour ratio (in logarithms). Thus, the assessment of the innovation intensity is a part of the productivity gain, which is due to the capital productivity dynamics. The second method is based on the special parameter, which characterizes the investment potential of growth. This potential is the need for investments to increase in productivity of single intensity. Calculations based on US statistics since the early 1960s illustrate the role of the innovation factor in certain quantitative assessments. In general, for the period 1961–2014, about 3/4 of the productivity gain is due to the capital-labour ratio growth, and only ¼ results from the capital productivity growth. In 1981–2000, about a half of the productivity gain was due to the innovation factor. This innovation factor is investments in breakthrough technologies. Furthermore, I found out that for a very long period, the investment rate alone had very little effect on the significant changes in the growth productivity rates. At the same time, from the beginning of the 1980s, a reduction in the relative demand for investment with almost the same investment allowed to stop the threatening tendency of reducing the productivity growth rates. The obtained results can be useful for the development of the Russian investment strategy, because the intensification of innovation activity is a basic condition for expanding investment activity.
Finances of region

Model for Calculating the Maximum Permissible Tax Burden in Amur Region in the Context of the Implementation of Largest Investment Projects
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According to the Government of the Amur region, tax collection from the implementation of investment projects was tightly controlled from 2016, because of the region’s high debt load. This situation requires assessing the acceptability of the level of regional tax burden for business entities. The purpose of this paper is to develop a model for assessing the level of regional tax burden, taking into account the implementation of the largest investment projects in the territory. The main hypothesis of this paper consists, firstly, in the existence of tax burden, which is acceptable for regional economic entities. Secondly, this level of tax burden ensures the growth of fiscal revenues for the budget. We proposed to assess the level of tax burden on the basis of a three-factor linear heterogeneous production function, taking into account certain economic indicators of the largest investment project — “Construction of the Vostochny Сosmodrome”. The concept of the Laffer curve serves as a research methodology. According to our calculations, since 2011, the tax burden in the Amur region has a clear tendency to increase. At the same time, from 2007 to the present time, the tax burden exceeds its maximum permissible value and constrains economic growth in the region. If this trend continues, by 2018 tax revenues from the territory of the region will be on the verge of reduction. The obtained results show that the tax burden in the Amur region in 2017 is 16.81 %. To stimulate the activities of economic entities in the region, and as a consequence, to increase the GRP of the region, it is necessary to reduce the level of taxation by 4.77 percentage points (to 12.04 %), Thus, the current economic situation requires to change the course of regional taxation policy to a more liberal attitude towards taxpayers. Otherwise, soon the budget of the Amur region may fail to receive a part of revenues, as the region’s economic entities will not be able to meet their tax obligations in full and on time. The results of this study can be applied by the authorities of the Russian Federation and the Amur region for the development and adjustment of the main settings of tax policy.

Sources of Regional Banks Capitalization
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Searching of sources to increase the capitalization of Russian banks is an important economic problem for both the national and regional economy. Moreover, a strong capital base allows to credit institutions to meet the demands of economic agents for banking service. The research focuses on the choice of sources of regulatory capital for the banks of Tyumen region in the context of changing supervisory requirements in the period of 2005–2016, in different phases of the business cycle. We apply econometric methods of statistical information using IBM SPSS Statistics software. We have calculated the individual correlations of regional banks’ capital with gross domestic product (GDP) (excluding gross regional product (GRP)) and GRP (with the exception of the effect of GDP). These calculations have shown that the capital of regional banks is related only to GDP. The increase in the capital of regional banks is accompanied by a change in its structure: the share of authorized capital has halved, and the share of subordinated debt has grown. All sources of capital, other than the reserve fund, are related to GDP. Authorized capital is associated with the profit of profitable lending institutions; retained earnings in the capital of regional banks — with the aggregated amount of risks of the banking system of the Russian Federation. Subordinated debt, like capital as a whole, is negatively affected by the profitability of the banking sector. The change in the capital of regional banks is determined by the change in retained earnings, subordinated debt and reserve fund. Modelling of these relations has allowed to obtain a system of equations. This system synthesizes linear regression models of changing the capital of regional banks in the context of their sourcing. The results of this study are significant for theoretical justification and practical development of a balanced financial policy of regional banks. Our research will contribute to strengthening an adequate capital base as well as to the creation of a system of proportional bank regulation and supervision.

Financial Guarantees of the Regional Budget are Growth Potential for the Investments in Fixed Capital
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In accordance with the existing standards applied to estimate the performance of regional public authorities, the quantitative indexes comprise such variables as ‘amount of fixed investments’ and ‘the tax revenues of regional budgets’. To the authors’ opinion, these variables are in mathematical relations. We assume that such relations can be used to assess the financial tools, which are at the disposal of regional public authorities. We have developed a methodology for quantitative evaluation of the economic performance of the financial instruments, which are at the disposal of regional public authorities and can impact the economic growth. The research is based on the comparative statistical analysis of the National Statistical Monitoring System concerning the economic development of Belgorod region. As a result, we have determined the acceptable potential for the increase of the Belgorod region’s budget guarantees assigned for the implementation of major investment projects. We have obtained the dependency of the tax revenues of regional budgets on the fixed assets productivity (the fixed capital or property used to generate income). Our technique allows to evaluate the amount of fiscal revenues of the budget of a federal subject of the Russian Federation depending both on the financial guarantees assigned by the regional budgets and on the productivity of fixed assets (capital productivity). The research results show that up-to-date domestic practice in managing the economic growth in the federal subjects of Russia underestimates the financial guarantees performance. The financial guarantee instrument is prioritized for the major investment projects. These projects can ensure the yield from capital investments as many as four, which fosters the increase of the fiscal revenues of regional budgets up to 40 %. We have measured the economic performance of management decisions concerning the choice of financial instruments by regional public authorities. Moreover, the paper presents the projection of the results from each financial instrument application.

Monitoring of Shadow Cash Flows Using Computer Modelling
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The computer simulation of economic systems is a promising tool in the development of the theory of the country’s economic security. We have examined the Russian banking legislation and synthesized judicial economic expertise. This has allowed to develop an algorithm for the investigation of the marker pattern of shadow cash flows. The authors’ algorithm of marker monitoring of cash flow consists of the following sequences. Firstly, we set the time of the first receipt of money and the first withdrawals. Secondly, we compare cash balance of an organization at the beginning of the period with the first withdrawals. Thirdly, under the given condition, the minimum value of interested money flow in these withdrawals is calculated. This value is characterized by the marker parameters and forms a table containing data on the cash flow, recipients and payers, spheres of their activity. And last, on the basis of this table, we build a graph of relationships between the subjects of the shadow economy. The graph’s vertices represent these subjects. The visual representation of the graph is a marker pattern of shadow cash flow. The practical importance of this algorithm is due to its applicability in the investigation of economic crimes both at the stage of intelligence operations, and when obtaining proofs of the brought criminal cases in the form of the conclusions of expertseconomists. In addition, marker patterns of shadow cash flows can describe the state of the shadow economy of a region as a whole including its dynamics. This expands its parameterization. The created database of the shadow flows of the economy can be also useful for the scientific community. On the basis of the received results, we have developed management decisions to create and administer the information resource of the Bank of Russia “Shadow economy of a region”. This information resource ensures tracking the marker trace of cash flow in the bank environment by the tools of computer modelling.

Round tables
<March 2018>